Society andSecurity Insights № 4 2022 50
Научная статья / Research Article
УДК 314.1
DOI: 10.14258/SSI(2022)4-03
Оценка параметров будущей демографической ситуации
вКазахстане
Лазат Сейтказиевна Спанкулова1,
Зауре Казбековна Чуланова2,
Мира Нурмаханова3,
Дана Муратбековна Кангалакова2
1Казахский национальный университет им. аль-Фараби, Алматы, Казахстан,
spankulova@mail.ru, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1865-4681
2Институт экономики КН МНВО РК, Алматы, Казахстан,
zaure.ch@mail.ru, https://orcid.org/000-0001-9333-7582,
dmuratbekovna@mail.ru, https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8388-8559
3KIMEP University, Алматы, Казахстан,
miranur@kimep.kz, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1399-7773
Аннотация.    ,  
       ,
     - 
    .  
      2100 . -
   .     -
 ,   ,   -
     .  
      , 
    .   
  2050 .    , 
   :    ;
   ;     ;
    ;   
  .     -
       -
    .
       -
 ,     -
     , , -
  , ,    ,
Интеграция ибезопасность в странах Азиатского региона 51
        -
    .
Ключевые слова: , ,  , , -
  , 
Финансирование:      BR10965247 «-
 ,    , ,
 ,    ».  -
—        -
.
Для цитирования: Спанкулова Л.ãС., Чуланова З.ãК., Нурмаханова М., Кангалакова Д.ãМ.
Оценка параметров будущей демографической ситуации вКазахстане // Society and Security
Insights. 2022. Т.5, № 4. С. 50–69. doi: 10.14258/ssi(2022)4-03.
Assessment of the Parameters of the Future Demographic
Situation inKazakhstan
Lyazat S. Spankulova1,
Zaure K. Chulanova2,
Mira B. Nurmakhanova3,
Dana M. Kangalakova2
1Al-Farabi Kazakh National University Kazakhstan, Almaty, Kazakhstan,
spankulova@mail.ru , https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1865-4681
2Institute of Economics of the CS MSHE RK, Almaty, Kazakhstan,
zaure.ch@mail.ru, https://orcid.org/000-0001-9333-7582,
dmuratbekovna@mail.ru , https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8388-8559
3KIMEP University, Almaty, Kazakhstan,
miranur@kimep.kz , https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1399-7773
Abstract. e analysis of trends indemographic processes, their cause-and-eect relation-
ships with socio-economic processes serves as the basis for the development of forecasts of the
number and structure of the population inthe future. In the strategic planning of the state eco-
nomic and social situation, the number of people is important. is research paper presents a
forecast of the demographic process on the example of the Republic of Kazakhstan by methods of
extrapolation and movement. e purpose of the study was toidentify the features and forecast
the population up tothe year 20100 by using the method of extrapolation and movement. e
study used methods such as analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction and extrapolation method,
the method of movement. e material basis of forecasting was the ocial statistical data from the
Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan. e problem of forecasting regional volumes
of demand for social and medical services is based on population projections provided by local
authorities; based on the future demand per capita, taking into account sociological and medical
Society andSecurity Insights № 4 2022 52
trends; on the results of the forecast, which will make it possible toplan the number of social and
medical facilities tocover the demand inthe future. e basis for the forecast is regional demo-
graphic forecasts, taking into account the future indicators of fertility, mortality and migration
provided by local authorities. As a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union, a demographic crisis
began inKazakhstan. Natural population growth has been replaced by a decline due toa decline
inthe birth rate and a simultaneous increase inmortality, on the other hand, a decrease inmor-
tality will lead tofurther aging of the population. Considering the historical fact, children of the
90s inthis period of life have high fertility. erefore, during the forecast there is a possibility of
distortion of the predicted data. ere are many models for assessing the parameters of the future
demographic situation and demographic forecast, taking into account the dynamics of the mor-
tality rate, the gender and age structure of the population. e results of the study can be applied
inthe theory of demographic forecasting, educational materials for students and inthe work on
strategic planning of state bodies.
Keywords: demography, forecast, method of movement, extrapolation, bayesian projection
methods, Kazakhstan
Funding: this research was funded by the Science Committee of the Ministry of Science and
Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan (Grant No. BR10965247 “Study of factors, fea-
tures and dynamics of demographic processes, migration, urbanization inKazakhstan, develop-
ment of digital maps and forecasts”).
For citation: Spankulova, L.ãS., Chulanova, Z.ãK., Nurmakhanova, M., Kangalakova, D.ãM. (2022).
Assessment of the Parameters of the Future Demographic Situation in Kazakhstan // Society and
Security Insights, 5(4), 50-69. doi: 10.14258/ssi(2022)4-03.
Введение
 ,      
     . -
       
 ,        -
.      
 ,      
:  , ,  , ,
   .     -
     COVID-19,  -
    ,    .
  199- .   ,  -
 ,     , 
  .    
 -     . 
 . , 22 .    -
 14854 . .,  11% 1985 . 1999 .   -
  217578 .,  4% 199 .
  2- .,     
,    ,  -
Интеграция ибезопасность в странах Азиатского региона 53
-    -
 :   ,  
,    ,   
 . 221 .     1,3 
   22 . 221 .  -
  2,71    1999 .  -
    1995 .,    168 656 ., 
1,3   199 .
      -
    ,   199-
  2- .      -
     (, -
),   ,   
       -
      .
     , 
    ,    ,
      .
       
   :   ; 
    ;   
    .     -
  ,    -
,  .
      -
       -
 ,       -
    .
  ,     ,
      -
    (Tabeau, 21; Booth, Tickle, 28; Girosi,
King, 28; Cairns et al., 211).
      
,   , -
  ,   (Booth & Tickle,
28; Stoeldraijer et al., 213).     -
,    ,    -
  (Booth, Tickle, 28)   , 
       -
     (Booth, Tickle, 28).
       -
      — -
 (Lee, Carter 1992; Shang et al., 211; Stoeldraijer et al., 213).  
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  —     (-
)       
 ,      -
.       
     (Lee, Carter, 1992).
  —   ,   
        -
,   ,    
,      -
 (Booth & Tickle, 28).
  (UN DESA, 219)    -
- .   
       
   ,    .
   21 .   -
  195- 22-.    219 . 25 . -
      5,3  ., -
   24,4  .
     ,  -
    ,    :
•       ( 1  1 ),  
     . ,   
    (  );
•   ,       .
    -
   ,  ,   -
      .
  ,    
     , -
     -
 .
      
     .  , 
      , 
,      -
        .  
       
   .
  ,     -
        -
 (, 211).   (Chulanova, Ussenova, 215; 
., 22)      
 ,      -
Интеграция ибезопасность в странах Азиатского региона 55
.         -
  :
•  1 — 2,6;
•  (  1 ) 1 —  6;
•  — 79 ;
•   — 28%;
•   1 .— 37;
•     2–24 — 67%.
        
  ,  .    -
 ,     
 .
Материалы иметоды
      -
    .  ,   
  (UN DESA, 219)    
     (. 1):
• , ,  ;
•    ;
•        
;
• , ,  .
 1—      .
Figure 1— Scheme of estimation of the parameters of the future demographic situation.
Society andSecurity Insights № 4 2022 56
      
    .
     :  -
,   ,   -
,       , ,
  ;  .
      -
  ,     -
   ,   
  .
     -
 (. 2).       :  -
, ,     
   ,  
   ,   
      ,   -
   , ,  .
 2— -   .
Figure 2— A block diagram of the demographic forecast of fertility.
Этапы демографического перехода будущих уровней рождаемости. 
       -
   .    -
 ,       
:  1—   ;  2—   -
;  3—   ,    (. 3).
,       195 .  , 
     5,5  ()
Интеграция ибезопасность в странах Азиатского региона 57
 .   2      -
     .    -
,      2.   (UN
DESA, 219),       
 .
      -. -
       ,  -
   ,    .
 3—     
(  ) (Alkema and others, 211).
Figure 3— Stages of demographic transition of birth rates
(live births per woman) (Alkema and others, 211).
  .    
      :
1.       -
  ( II).  ,    -
 ,     
    (. 4).
2.       III,  -
       
   ,  -
,      
        -
   .
       1,85,
      
Society andSecurity Insights № 4 2022 58
    II     III.
  ,  ,   
 II   III    ,  -
  III 21522 .      
   II  III,     
  III (. 5).
 4—      .
Figure 4— Time series model for fertility forecasting.
 5—      
(World Population Prospects, 219).
Figure 5— Overall decline infertility depending on the birth rate
(World Population Prospects, 219).
Интеграция ибезопасность в странах Азиатского региона 59
      -
,    , , -
 ,   .
Оценка уровня и тенденции будущей рождаемости.   
       
  : 1)  
; 2)    ; 3) 
 ; 4)   ; 5) -
   6)  ,   -
      -
   .
Прогноз возрастных закономерностей рождаемости.   -
      -
     ,  
    .  
     ()
    15–19 4549 . 
       
   :   ,
,    ,   
 ;    ,  -
  ,      -
,—       .
Прогноз ожидаемой продолжительности жизни женщин.  -
      
   .     -
       
 (. 6).
Оценка гендерного разрыва. ,   
  ,     -
      . , 
        
 ,     
     , -
     .
      -
       
       -
   .
Предположения омиграции.    
    .  -
—     ,   
.       . -