Society andSecurity Insights № 4 2022 52
trends; on the results of the forecast, which will make it possible toplan the number of social and
medical facilities tocover the demand inthe future. e basis for the forecast is regional demo-
graphic forecasts, taking into account the future indicators of fertility, mortality and migration
provided by local authorities. As a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union, a demographic crisis
began inKazakhstan. Natural population growth has been replaced by a decline due toa decline
inthe birth rate and a simultaneous increase inmortality, on the other hand, a decrease inmor-
tality will lead tofurther aging of the population. Considering the historical fact, children of the
90s inthis period of life have high fertility. erefore, during the forecast there is a possibility of
distortion of the predicted data. ere are many models for assessing the parameters of the future
demographic situation and demographic forecast, taking into account the dynamics of the mor-
tality rate, the gender and age structure of the population. e results of the study can be applied
inthe theory of demographic forecasting, educational materials for students and inthe work on
strategic planning of state bodies.
Keywords: demography, forecast, method of movement, extrapolation, bayesian projection
methods, Kazakhstan
Funding: this research was funded by the Science Committee of the Ministry of Science and
Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan (Grant No. BR10965247 “Study of factors, fea-
tures and dynamics of demographic processes, migration, urbanization inKazakhstan, develop-
ment of digital maps and forecasts”).
For citation: Spankulova, L.ãS., Chulanova, Z.ãK., Nurmakhanova, M., Kangalakova, D.ãM. (2022).
Assessment of the Parameters of the Future Demographic Situation in Kazakhstan // Society and
Security Insights, 5(4), 50-69. doi: 10.14258/ssi(2022)4-03.
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