Society andSecurity Insights № 4 2022 50

Научная статья / Research Article

УДК 314.1

DOI: 10.14258/SSI(2022)4-03

Оценка параметров будущей демографической ситуации

вКазахстане

Лазат Сейтказиевна Спанкулова1,

Зауре Казбековна Чуланова2,

Мира Нурмаханова3,

Дана Муратбековна Кангалакова2

1Казахский национальный университет им. аль-Фараби, Алматы, Казахстан,

spankulova@mail.ru, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1865-4681

2Институт экономики КН МНВО РК, Алматы, Казахстан,

zaure.ch@mail.ru, https://orcid.org/000-0001-9333-7582,

dmuratbekovna@mail.ru, https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8388-8559

3KIMEP University, Алматы, Казахстан,

miranur@kimep.kz, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1399-7773

Аннотация.    ,  

       ,

     - 

    .  

      2100 . -

   .     -

 ,   ,   -

     .  

      , 

    .   

  2050 .    , 

   :    ;

   ;     ;

    ;   

  .     -

       -

    .

       -

 ,     -

     , , -

  , ,    ,

Интеграция ибезопасность в странах Азиатского региона 51

        -

    .

Ключевые слова: , ,  , , -

  , 

Финансирование:      BR10965247 «-

 ,    , ,

 ,    ».  -

—        -

.

Для цитирования: Спанкулова Л.ãС., Чуланова З.ãК., Нурмаханова М., Кангалакова Д.ãМ.

Оценка параметров будущей демографической ситуации вКазахстане // Society and Security

Insights. 2022. Т.5, № 4. С. 50–69. doi: 10.14258/ssi(2022)4-03.

Assessment of the Parameters of the Future Demographic

Situation inKazakhstan

Lyazat S. Spankulova1,

Zaure K. Chulanova2,

Mira B. Nurmakhanova3,

Dana M. Kangalakova2

1Al-Farabi Kazakh National University Kazakhstan, Almaty, Kazakhstan,

spankulova@mail.ru , https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1865-4681

2Institute of Economics of the CS MSHE RK, Almaty, Kazakhstan,

zaure.ch@mail.ru, https://orcid.org/000-0001-9333-7582,

dmuratbekovna@mail.ru , https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8388-8559

3KIMEP University, Almaty, Kazakhstan,

miranur@kimep.kz , https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1399-7773

Abstract. e analysis of trends indemographic processes, their cause-and-eect relation-

ships with socio-economic processes serves as the basis for the development of forecasts of the

number and structure of the population inthe future. In the strategic planning of the state eco-

nomic and social situation, the number of people is important. is research paper presents a

forecast of the demographic process on the example of the Republic of Kazakhstan by methods of

extrapolation and movement. e purpose of the study was toidentify the features and forecast

the population up tothe year 20100 by using the method of extrapolation and movement. e

study used methods such as analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction and extrapolation method,

the method of movement. e material basis of forecasting was the ocial statistical data from the

Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan. e problem of forecasting regional volumes

of demand for social and medical services is based on population projections provided by local

authorities; based on the future demand per capita, taking into account sociological and medical

Society andSecurity Insights № 4 2022 52

trends; on the results of the forecast, which will make it possible toplan the number of social and

medical facilities tocover the demand inthe future. e basis for the forecast is regional demo-

graphic forecasts, taking into account the future indicators of fertility, mortality and migration

provided by local authorities. As a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union, a demographic crisis

began inKazakhstan. Natural population growth has been replaced by a decline due toa decline

inthe birth rate and a simultaneous increase inmortality, on the other hand, a decrease inmor-

tality will lead tofurther aging of the population. Considering the historical fact, children of the

90s inthis period of life have high fertility. erefore, during the forecast there is a possibility of

distortion of the predicted data. ere are many models for assessing the parameters of the future

demographic situation and demographic forecast, taking into account the dynamics of the mor-

tality rate, the gender and age structure of the population. e results of the study can be applied

inthe theory of demographic forecasting, educational materials for students and inthe work on

strategic planning of state bodies.

Keywords: demography, forecast, method of movement, extrapolation, bayesian projection

methods, Kazakhstan

Funding: this research was funded by the Science Committee of the Ministry of Science and

Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan (Grant No. BR10965247 “Study of factors, fea-

tures and dynamics of demographic processes, migration, urbanization inKazakhstan, develop-

ment of digital maps and forecasts”).

For citation: Spankulova, L.ãS., Chulanova, Z.ãK., Nurmakhanova, M., Kangalakova, D.ãM. (2022).

Assessment of the Parameters of the Future Demographic Situation in Kazakhstan // Society and

Security Insights, 5(4), 50-69. doi: 10.14258/ssi(2022)4-03.

Введение

 ,      

     . -

       

 ,        -

.      

 ,      

:  , ,  , ,

   .     -

     COVID-19,  -

    ,    .

  199- .   ,  -

 ,     , 

  .    

 -     . 

 . , 22 .    -

 14854 . .,  11% 1985 . 1999 .   -

  217578 .,  4% 199 .

  2- .,     

,    ,  -

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-     -

 :   ,  

,    ,   

 . 221 .     1,3 

   22 . 221 .  -

  2,71    1999 .  -

    1995 .,    168 656 ., 

1,3   199 .

      -

    ,   199-

  2- .      -

     (, -

),   ,   

       -

      .

     , 

    ,    ,

      .

       

   :   ; 

    ;   

    .     -

  ,    -

,  .

      -

       -

 ,       -

    .

  ,     ,

      -

    (Tabeau, 21; Booth, Tickle, 28; Girosi,

King, 28; Cairns et al., 211).

      

,    ,  -

  ,   (Booth & Tickle,

28; Stoeldraijer et al., 213).     -

,    ,    -

  (Booth, Tickle, 28)   , 

       -

     (Booth, Tickle, 28).

       -

      — -

 (Lee, Carter 1992; Shang et al., 211; Stoeldraijer et al., 213).  

Society andSecurity Insights № 4 2022 54

  —     (-

)       

 ,      -

.       

     (Lee, Carter, 1992).

  —   ,   

        -

,   ,    

,      -

 (Booth & Tickle, 28).

  (UN DESA, 219)    -

-  .    

       

   ,    .

   21 .   -

  195- 22-.    219 . 25 . -

      5,3  ., -

   24,4  .

     ,  -

    ,    :

•       ( 1  1 ),  

     . ,   

    (  );

•   ,       .

    -

   ,  ,   -

      .

  ,    

     , -

     -

 .

      

     .  , 

      , 

,      -

        .  

       

   .

  ,     -

        -

 (, 211).   (Chulanova, Ussenova, 215; 

., 22)      

 ,      -

Интеграция ибезопасность в странах Азиатского региона 55

.         -

  :

•  1 — 2,6;

•  (  1 ) 1 —  6;

•  — 79 ;

•   — 28%;

•   1 .— 37;

•     2–24 — 67%.

        

  ,  .    -

 ,     

 .

Материалы иметоды

      -

    .  ,   

  (UN DESA, 219)    

     (. 1):

• , ,  ;

•    ;

•        

;

• , ,  .

 1—      .

Figure 1— Scheme of estimation of the parameters of the future demographic situation.

Society andSecurity Insights № 4 2022 56

      

    .

     :  -

,   ,   -

,       , ,

  ;  .

      -

  ,     -

   ,   

  .

     -

 (. 2).       :  -

, ,     

   ,  

   ,   

      ,   -

   , ,  .

 2— -   .

Figure 2— A block diagram of the demographic forecast of fertility.

Этапы демографического перехода будущих уровней рождаемости. 

       -

   .    -

 ,       

:  1—   ;  2—   -

;  3—   ,    (. 3).

,       195 .  , 

     5,5  ()

Интеграция ибезопасность в странах Азиатского региона 57

 .   2      -

     .    -

,      2.   (UN

DESA, 219),       

 .

      -. -

       ,  -

   ,    .

 3—     

(  ) (Alkema and others, 211).

Figure 3— Stages of demographic transition of birth rates

(live births per woman) (Alkema and others, 211).

  .    

      :

1.       -

  ( II).  ,    -

 ,     

    (. 4).

2.       III,  -

       

   ,  -

,      

        -

   .

       1,85,

      

Society andSecurity Insights № 4 2022 58

    II     III.

  ,  ,   

 II   III    ,  -

  III 215–22 .      

   II  III,     

  III (. 5).

 4—      .

Figure 4— Time series model for fertility forecasting.

 5—      

(World Population Prospects, 219).

Figure 5— Overall decline infertility depending on the birth rate

(World Population Prospects, 219).

Интеграция ибезопасность в странах Азиатского региона 59

      -

,    , , -

 ,   .

Оценка уровня и тенденции будущей рождаемости.   

       

  : 1)  

; 2)    ; 3) 

 ; 4)   ; 5) -

   6)  ,   -

      -

   .

Прогноз возрастных закономерностей рождаемости.   -

      -

     ,  

    .  

     ()

    15–19 45–49 . 

       

   :   ,

,    ,   

 ;    ,  -

  ,      -

,—       .

Прогноз ожидаемой продолжительности жизни женщин.  -

      

   .     -

       

 (. 6).

Оценка гендерного разрыва. ,   

  ,     -

      . , 

        

 ,     

     , -

     .

      -

       

       -

   .

Предположения омиграции.    

    .  -

—     ,   

.       . -

Society andSecurity Insights № 4 2022 60

 ,     ,   -

    , , 

 ,     .

   ()    -

      -

 .     , 

     .  

, , ,  .

  1 2      . -

      , -

 ,   ,   -

  ( )  222 21 .

  3 4     -

      ,

      -

 22–25 .

 6—     

   ()   (UN DESA, 219).

Figure 6— Estimates and predicted probabilistic trajectories of life

expectancy of women (men) at birth (UN DESA, 219).

Результаты ивыводы

 ,   1 2 ( ), -

      .

Интеграция ибезопасность в странах Азиатского региона 61

Численность населения.    , 

,  22–221 .   COVID-19,  

.  ,   ,    -

  ,     

   .     

23.,      28., 

      21 . 

      , 23 . -

    21 23 114 ., 25.  -

  25497 599 ., 21 .    345298.

     25. 6,4  . 21 .

    14,95 . (. 1).

Состав населения. 23 .    

 1 225 311 .,    — 1 92 91 .  -

,     1   93,8.

25 .      12 546 132 .,

     13 63 845 .  ,  -

   1    96. 21 .

     16 985181 .,  -

    1718 149 .  ,  -

   1   99,3.  

,      

  1  (. 1).

    14  23 .  

5,87  .,   15 59 — 12,29  .,  

    6    2,97 

.     14  25 .  

6,55  .,    15 59 — 14,68  .,   -

   6+    4,37  . 

,  2  (23–25 .)    -

   (  14 ) 68 .    -

   15 59   2,4  . 

  (6+)  1,4  . (. 2).

    14  21 .  

6,17  .,   15 59   19,35  ., 

     6+   

8,57  .  , 5  (25–21 .)   -

    (  14 ) 38  .  

    15 59   4,67  .

   (6+)  4,2  .  ,

   21 . (. 2).

Демографическая динамика иэлементы. ,  1  23 .

  (   )  2,84

Society andSecurity Insights № 4 2022 62

     386  . ,

 25 .    2,42,  -

 — 45 . 21 .    1,91, -

  — 41 .   -

 ,      , 

      2,.

  23 .  195 .,   91 

 84  ,      -

 72,9 ,        -

 68,8 ;  — 76,7 .   25 . 

255.,   114  111 ,   -

    75,4 ,    

    71,6 ;  — 79,2 .  -

 21.  318 .,   163  156 , 

     82,6 ,   

     8,2 ;  — 85,1.

   23 .  6,4 1 -

. 25 .     4,1, -

   2, 21 .

 ,     

   ,     .   

     2,8   23–25 .;

    25–21 .    8,6 .

      2,5  -

 23–25 .;     25–21 .  

    5,9 .    

  .    222–244 .

( —  )  25 237  .

 245 .      -

   82,5 . . 21. (. 1).

Прогноз наоснове альтернативных методов

  ,   3 4, -

       -

   25 .    — 

  ,  ,  -

  — ,    -

  25  . (. 4).

       

(. 3)    (. 4).    -

  3  .

      -

    (. 3).     -

 25 . 27 . .

Интеграция ибезопасность в странах Азиатского региона 63

 1.

  

Table 1.

Total fertility rate



2020-2025

2025-2030

2030-2035

2035-2040

2040-2045

2045-2050

2050-2055

2055-2060

2060-2065

2065-2070

2070-2075

2075-2080

2080-2085

2085-2090

2090-2095

2095-2100

 4,41 4,56 4,43 3,67 3,61 3,23 3,04 3,03 2,55 2,00 2,01 2,54 2,67 2,76

  2,62 2,50 2,40 2,31 2,23 2,16 2,10 2,05 2,01 1,97 1,94 1,91 1,89 1,87 1,85 1,84

  2,87 2,90 2,90 2,81 2,73 2,66 2,60 2,55 2,51 2,47 2,44 2,41 2,39 2,37 2,35 2,34

  2,37 2,10 1,90 1,81 1,73 1,66 1,60 1,55 1,51 1,47 1,44 1,41 1,39 1,37 1,35 1,34

 -

 2,76 2,76 2,76 2,76 2,76 2,76 2,76 2,76 2,76 2,76 2,76 2,76 2,76 2,76 2,76 2,76



 2,10 2,09 2,09 2,09 2,09 2,08 2,08 2,08 2,08 2,08 2,08 2,08 2,08 2,07 2,07 2,07

 2,10 2,10 2,10 2,10 2,10 2,10 2,10 2,10 2,10 2,10 2,10 2,10 2,10 2,10 2,10 2,10

  2,62 2,50 2,40 2,31 2,23 2,16 2,10 2,05 2,01 1,97 1,94 1,91 1,89 1,87 1,85 1,84



 2,62 2,50 2,40 2,31 2,23 2,16 2,10 2,05 2,01 1,97 1,94 1,91 1,89 1,87 1,85 1,84

  2,76 2,76 2,76 2,76 2,76 2,76 2,76 2,76 2,76 2,76 2,76 2,76 2,76 2,76 2,76 2,76

Society andSecurity Insights № 4 2022 64

 2.

,  

Table 2.

Births, both sexes



,

,

 



2020-2025

2025-2030

2030-2035

2035-2040

2040-2045

2045-2050

2050-2055

2055-2060

2060-2065

2065-2070

2070-2075

2075-2080

2080-2085

2085-2090

2090-2095

2095-2100

  1 253 1 598 1 842 1 631 1 761 1 825 1 959 2 048 1 661 1 240 1 256 1 707 1 913 1 943

 -

  1 719 1 623 1 685 1 804 1 866 1 837 1 760 1 698 1 678 1 682 1 680 1 651 1 604 1 551 1 514 1 492

 -

  1 883 1 883 2 036 2 200 2 327 2 381 2 394 2 427 2 501 2 594 2 675 2 728 2 765 2 797 2 848 2 917

 -

  1 555 1 363 1 333 1 409 1 420 1 338 1 209 1 092 1 019 976 935 879 810 738 680 636



  1 813 1 793 1 942 2 163 2 338 2 423 2 462 2 534 2 674 2 854 3 028 3 169 3 290 3 422 3 586 3 779



  1 374 1 358 1 468 1 623 1 684 1 633 1 550 1 501 1 519 1 570 1 602 1 595 1 566 1 543 1 542 1 558

  1 377 1 362 1 475 1 631 1 693 1 643 1 560 1 511 1 530 1 583 1 615 1 608 1 579 1 556 1 556 1 572

 -

  1 719 1 623 1 685 1 804 1 866 1 837 1 760 1 698 1 678 1 682 1 680 1 651 1 604 1 551 1 514 1 492



  1 719 1 622 1 683 1 801 1 862 1 831 1 751 1 686 1 664 1 665 1 659 1 628 1 578 1 522 1 482 1 457

   1 812 1 793 1 940 2 160 2 332 2 414 2 450 2 517 2 651 2 825 2 991 3 124 3 236 3 358 3 511 3 691

Интеграция ибезопасность в странах Азиатского региона 65

       -

   (. 4).     

 4  .,    .   

.

    ,   

 ,   ,     -

  .     -

   ,     

   .   -

    .

 3.

  c    

Table 3.

Forecasts of population on the methods of prospects and movements



 

  95%  95% 

 -





2020 18776707 18776707 18776707 18631779 18631779

2025 19787745 19592923 19992639 19981164 20688846

2030 20639019 20203047 21101999 21395654 22598690

2035 21483455 20749858 22311954 22851782 24150340

2040 22370403 21263294 23658304 24349548 25434411

2045 23242950 21721057 25085662 25888953 27161479

2050 24024036 22044842 26530786 27469995 30287421

2055 24681909 22187089 27945128  

2060 25243435 22186056 29352979  

2065 25751107 22105199 30912456  

2070 26223002 21987400 32601034  

2075 26656354 21788522 34339559  

2080 27041822 21556338 36202912  

2085 27376705 21229101 38199934  

2090 27649907 20862931 40217374  

2095 27839349 20432742 42361479  

2100 27917815 19822646 44408214  

Society andSecurity Insights № 4 2022 66

 4.

    ,

  ,  

,    

Table 4.

Forecasting using the average growth coecient, exponential curve formulas,

natural and mechanical movements, second and third degree polynomials



 







-

 



-

 



 2-



 3-



2020 18631779 18631779 18631779 18631779 18631779

2025 19582187 19587051 19650140 24366872 23294862

2030 20581075 20591300 20724162 27312022 25145461

2035 21630917 21647039 21856887 30827572 26950009

2040 22734311 22756906 23051524 34913522 28582701

2045 23893990 23923678 24311456 39569872 29917732

2050 25112823 25150271 25640252 44796622 30829297

        

    .  , 25 . (-

      )   -

   13 . .

 25 .      14128 764 .,  

  3956 53 .,     2

   ,  , 

     1 .  .

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Интеграция ибезопасность в странах Азиатского региона 69

ИНФОРМАЦИЯ ОБ АВТОРАХ/ INFORMATION ABOUT THE AUTHORS

  — - . ,   -

  . -, . , 

Lazat S. Spankulova— Dr. Sci (Economics), Associate Professor of the Kazakh National

University al-Farabi, Almaty, Kazakhstan

  — . . ,    -

    , , 

Zaure K. Chulanova— Ph.D inEconomics, Leading Researcher, Institute of Economics,

CS MSHE RK, Almaty, Kazakhstan

 —  KIMEP University, , 

Mira B. Nurmakhanova— Lecturer at KIMEP University, Almaty, Kazakhstan

  — PhD,    

   , , 

Dana M. Kangalakova— PhD, Leading Researcher, Institute of Economics, CS MSHE

RK, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Статья поступила вредакцию 11.08.2022;

одобрена после рецензирования 10.12.2022;

принята кпубликации 11.12.2022.

The article was submitted 11.08.2022;

approved after reviewing 10.12.2022;

accepted for publication 11.12.2022.