Государство, гражданское общество истабильность 89

Научная статья / Research Article

УДК 316.43/ ББК 60.54

DOI: 10.14258/SSI(2024)3-05

Образ будущего России воценках городского исельского

населения (по материалам исследования вВологодской

области)

Ксения Евгеньевна Косыгина

Ирина Михайловна Бахвалова

Ксения Андреевна Кулик

Вологодский научный центр Российской академии наук, Вологда, Россия;

sene4ka.87@mail.ru, https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5875-8912

Вологодский научный центр Российской академии наук, Вологда, Россия;

krupnoch@yandex.ru, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8523-3254

Вологодский научный центр Российской академии наук, Вологда, Россия;

ksen.ksusha@mail.ru

Аннотация.       -

      — 

 .    ,  2018

2023 .    ,   -

 .     1500 . 

    . -, -

       -

   . ,    

    .  

        

.        , 

. -,  -   -

 .      .

     ,    .

,        , 

.    ,    -

     ,    

    .    

     ,    -

     .    

        

  ,   .

Ключевые слова:  ,  , , , ,

 , ,  , 

Society andSecurity Insights № 3 2024 90

Финансирование:      -

     FMGZ-2022-0013 « : -

   ».

Для цитирования: Косыгина К. Е., Бахвалова И. М., Кулик К. А. Образ будущего России

воценках городского и сельского населения (по материалам исследования вВологодской

области) // Society andSecurity Insights. 2024. Т.7, №3. С.89–108. doi: 10.14258/ssi(2024)3-05.

e Image ofthe Future ofRussia inthe Assessments ofthe Urban

andRural Population (Based on Materials ofa Research inthe

Vologda Region)

Kseniya E. Kosygina

Irina М. Bakhvalova

Ksenia А. Kulik

Vologda Scientific Center ofthe Russian Academy ofSciences, Vologda, Russia;

sene4ka.87@mail.ru, https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5875-8912

Vologda Scientific Center ofthe Russian Academy ofSciences, Vologda, Russia;

krupnoch@yandex.ru, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8523-3254

Vologda Scientific Center ofthe Russian Academy ofSciences, Vologda, Russia;

ksen.ksusha@mail.ru

Abstract. e article is devoted to the study ofsociety’s expectations regarding the future

ofRussia ina territorial context with a focus on two categories— urban andrural populations.

e study was conducted on the basis ofdata obtained in2018 and2023 during public opinion

monitoring conducted inthe Vologda region. e sample size was 1,500 people. e structure

ofthe study is presented intwo thematic blocks. Firstly, the assessments ofurban andrural com-

munities ofthe political andeconomic situation inthe country inthe near future are analyzed. It

was revealed that citizens are more optimistic about the future political situation. Regarding the

economic situation, respondents generally do not expect signicant changes inthe next ve years.

Rural residents assess economic development prospects more critically than urban residents. Sec-

ondly, the value andworldview context ofthe image ofthe future ofRussia is considered. e

study showed an increase indemand for justice insociety. At the same time, urban residents feel

injustice more acutely than residents ofrural areas. It was revealed that both social strata are more

inclined to support stability than change. Analysis ofthe data obtained showed that public opin-

ion inthe region regarding the future development ofRussia is positive, but there is also cautious

optimism andsome concerns. ere are more opponents ofthe Western way oflife for Russia

among urban residents, andaccordingly, there are more supporters ofWestern rules among those

living inrural areas. Among urban residents there are more adherents ofthe focus on the unity

ofthe peoples ofRussia inorder to revive it as a great power than among rural residents.

Keywords: image ofthe future, social justice, city, village, society, public opinion, develop-

ment, Russian society, expectations

Financial Support: the work was carried out within the framework ofthe state task ofthe

Государство, гражданское общество истабильность 91

Ministry ofScience andHigher Education ofthe Russian Federation FMGZ-2022-0013 «Social

Reality: National Development andRegional Trends».

For citation: Kosygina, K. E., Bakhvalova I. M., Kulik K. A. (2024). The Image ofthe Future ofRus-

sia inthe Assessments ofthe Urban andRural Population (Based on Materials ofa Research inthe

Vologda Region). Society andSecurity Insights, 7(3), 89–108. (InRuss.). doi: 10.14258/ssi(2024)3-05.

Введение

       -

,   -  -

,     : ,   -

,      . 

  -   

      .  -

 ,        -

     ,   

 (, 223; , , 218). ,  

,       

 (75%),   4% ,   8–1    -

  .  ,  

(«  »)    -

 ,     

.

 ,        -

   . ..  ,

       -

  (, 1998). .   ,  -

      (Urry, 216).  «

      

    ,  , -

  » (, , , 222).

       -

       . .. 

 ,  « ,  

,       ,  „-

“  » (, 216).   

    ,   , 

   — - (, ,

222), - (, 214, , 222), -

 (, , 222).     

     ,

   .      -

Образ будущего: оценки россиян. Образ будущего страны постепенно обретает в со-

знании россиян более зримые очертания // ВЦИОМ. URL: https://wciom.ru/analytical-reviews/

analiticheskii-obzor/obraz-budushchego-ocenki-rossijan

Society andSecurity Insights № 3 2024 92

       

  ,     

      

 .

 ,   —   -

      

       -

—   .    -

       , 

      

  .   

     ,    -

  .    -

    1–2  ( ., 221). 

       -

      

     .

Теоретические основы исследования

        -

 ,     ,  -

    ,   «»

    ,   

 .       -

: -, , , -

, , ,  . 

    , , 

     -

 (.. , .. , ..  .),  -

 (.. )   (. , . -

, .  .).     ,

          

    (, 218; , 212). -

 ,  ,     

  ,      ,

     (, 221).  -

     « » -

    .    

   ,     -

,      (,

224).   ,     -

 ,      , -

, ,      -

Государство, гражданское общество истабильность 93

      (,

, , , 221).

        -

 « »      -

  .   « -

»    ( ) 

  (Liu, Szpunar, 222).  , « -

—    ,   , 

      

  ,    , -

     » (, ,

218).  ,     -

 ,       -

 ,   (, 221). 

      

 ,     -

     (, 221).  

       , 

, , ,  ,   (,

, , 223).

       

 ,    ,  -

.         

    ,   

  (, , , , 221). 

         -

      , -

 - .

Материалы иметоды

      

,    223 .     ,

    .   -

  15 .  —   

.        

  .    -

     

     .   -

—       -

,     — , ,  

  .     

    (, , ). -

        .

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     -

  : , .   ; -

     SPSS.

      , 

   :  . --

,   -    

       

   .    -

      -

      

  .     -

      -

       . -

    ( )  

      (, 223). - , 

    - 

      

 ;   ;  -

    ,    -

 .     

  , , ,     -

  .

Основные результаты исследования

Оценки городского исельского населения политической иэкономической

ситуации наближайшую перспективу

     -

    .  

       (2%),  -

,   ,  — 27%.  

     

 (31%),       

      . -

         -

    : 23%  , 

 ,  17%  .  -

  223 .      

   ,    .

 218 .   223 .   

      -

    ( 17% 27%),     ( 2%

27%).  218 .       -

,  223-   .    -

Государство, гражданское общество истабильность 95

   ,    223.

(. 1).

 1.

      , %

Table 1.

Population expectations regarding the development ofthe political situation inRussia, %

Вариант ответа

2018 г. 2023 г.

Гор од Село Область Гор од Село Область



25,6 21,6 24,6 23,2 17,2 19,9

  

35,8 35,8 35,8 30,9 30,4 30,7



17,1 20,2 18,0

27,1 27,3 27,2

 

21,5 22,3 21,7 18,8 25,2 20,6

Источник: Мониторинг общественного мнения ВолНЦ РАН, N=1500.

,       -

   ,   

,      -

 .      , -

     .  

       

,  ,     -

,     

      

.     ,   -

     ,  

« »  47%    32% ,

   54% 23% , -

   — 24% 13%.   

        -

   ,  

- .  ,  -

       .

       

  ,    

   (, , , 22).

 ,    -

 ,   «    

       ?». -

   23%  ,    -

       

Society andSecurity Insights № 3 2024 96

.  , 42%   ,  « -

     ,     -

  ».  — 16%,  

,   (19%).   ,   -

      (16%),  

 (23%).      -

 :   ,    

  ,   ,    ,

  . 218 .   ,   -

    ,   -

    (. 2).

 2.

   «   

       ?», %

Table 2.

Distribution ofanswers to the question «Which ofthe following judgments

about the political system ofour society do you agree with most?», %

Вариант ответа

2018 г. 2023 г.

Гор од Село Область Гор од Село Область

  -

  -

  

14,6 9,8 13,2 16,2 16,4 16,3

  

  

,  

  

 

46,6 41,1 45,1 42,2 41,1 41,9

  

 

 , 

 



25,8 30,8 27,3 22,6 23,3 22,8

  13,0 18,2 14,5 19,0 19,2 19,1

Источник: Мониторинг общественного мнения ВолНЦ РАН, N=1500.

    . -

       -

 ,   ,   -

      ,   9%,

    (4%) ,     

 ,  . ,  ,

      , 

Государство, гражданское общество истабильность 97

 .      218 .  

        

 ,   ,     -

    (19; 28%; . 3).

 3.

Оценки населением перспектив развития экономики в ближайшие пять лет, %

Table 3.

Public assessments ofeconomic development prospects inthe next ve years, %

Вариант ответа

2018 г. 2023 г.

Гор од Село Область Гор од Село Область

 8,1 9,3 8,4 9,7 5,5 8,5

 ,  



37,3 37,8 37,4 38,7 43,0 39,9

 19,6 19,2 19,5 24,2 27,8 25,2

  35,1 33,7 34,7 27,3 23,8 26,3

Источник: Мониторинг общественного мнения ВолНЦ РАН, N=1500.

  ,     -

 ,    ,  -

   .   

 ,     --

   (, , 223).   

,   ,    - 

   , ,  ,

  ,  .  ,  -

  ,     -

 ,   (, , , 223).

Ценностно-мировоззренческий контекст образа будущего России воцен-

ках городского исельского населения

        -

       

    - .

 ,    ,  -

  ,    -

  (, 223).  

       -

   .     

    .    -

      

Society andSecurity Insights № 3 2024 98

,      -

,   , ,   (, 214).

     

   .    

    .   

   ,   . , 

  ,     

,    .    223 . -

       

 218 . (. 4).

 4.

   

  , %

Table 4.

Distribution ofopinions on the fairness ofthe structure ofmodern Russian society, %

Вариант ответа

2018 г. 2023 г.

Гор од Село Область Гор од Село Область

 11,7 20,6 14,2 23,2 29,1 24,8

 65,3 48,9 60,7 57,0 49,0 54,8

  23,0 30,5 25,1 19,7 21,9 20,3

Источник: Мониторинг общественного мнения ВолНЦ РАН, N=1500.

   - 

     ,  

     ,  . -

       

,       ,  , -

, ,  . 223 .   

 «» (32%) ( …, 223, . 5).   

,     224 .  -

 :      ,  

  (26%, +1 ..  22 .),    

 (22%, −4 .. 22 .).    223 .



       .

        

.      -

 «»,  «».

      

,       (45%),  -

Социальная справедливость: мониторинг // ВЦИОМ. URL: https://wciom.ru/analytical-reviews/

analiticheskii-obzor/socialnaja-spravedlivost-monitoring

Государство, гражданское общество истабильность 99

  ,    (38%).   -

  ,      , 

  ,   .  -

,      

 ,       .

    ,  223 .   -

        -

:       , 

.  218 .   :  

    ,   45% -

, ,     — 46%. 

       31%

218 . 41% 223 . (. 5).

 5.

   «  ,  

  —   ?», %

Table 5.

Distribution ofanswers to the question «What do you think is more

important for the country today— stability or change?», %

Вариант ответа

2018 г. 2023 г.

Гор од Село Область Гор од Село Область

  -

,  ,

 

37,6 46,4 40,0 45,4 44,2 45,1

  -

 ,

  

 -

  

44,5 31,4 40,9 37,2 41,3 38,3

  17,9 22,2 19,1 17,4 14,5 16,6

Источник: Мониторинг общественного мнения ВолНЦ РАН, N=1500.

  ,    -

  ,       

 (52%). ,     -

     .  ,  -

,     ,    2%. -

     ,     

   .  

 ,         -

       . 

  ,  ,   « ».

Society andSecurity Insights № 3 2024 100

218 .       , -

    22 .,    

    . , 

22 . 223-      -

    :  28%  52%; —

3% 52%, — 23% 52% (. 6).

 6.

   «,  ,

 ,    ?»

Table 6.

Distribution ofanswers to the question «How promising, inyour

opinion, is the path along which the country is moving today? »

Вариант ответа

2002 г. 2023 г.

Гор од Село Область Гор од Село Область

,  

,  -

 

29,8 23,2 28,1 52,0 52,3 52,1

,  

 ,

  

20,8 32,6 24,1 19,5 22,6 20,3

  49,3 44,2 47,8 28,5 25,2 27,6

Источник: Мониторинг общественного мнения ВолНЦ РАН, N=1500.

    :    -

,  ,    ,    (

52%),—        -

 .  ,  ,    ,

 22%.     ,   

     ,

   ,     -

 ,   -

. ,      

       -

   ,     .

      (66%) ,  

           ,

    11%. ,  -

      -

,    ,  

  .  ,  

     .   -

Государство, гражданское общество истабильность 101

        (68%  61%), -

       

 (1%  14%; . 7).

 7.

   «, ,  

    ,  

  ,     

 ,    ?», 223 ., %

Table 7.

Distribution ofanswers to the question «Please tell me, should Russia follow

the model oflife that operates inmodern Western countries, or does it need to

develop its own civilizational concept, follow its own special path?», 223, %

Вариант ответа Гор од Село Область

—  ,    -

   

68,1 61,3 66,2

     ,  -

  

10,4 13,5 11,3

  21,5 25,2 22,5

Источник: Мониторинг общественного мнения ВолНЦ РАН, N=1500.

 223 . 22 .        -

 ,    . 2- 

     .  5% , 

       

   ,     

    (39%),     

  ,   .  -

       

(3%).  22 . 223 .  ,  

         -

 26 .. ( 23% 49%),      -

— 14% ( 22% 36%),      

,   ,— 16% ( 8% 24%).   

       ,   -

 .   22 .     -

 ,  ,  223 .    .

       

        (51%),  

 (45%; . 8).

     ,   

     ,   

  .   , 

Society andSecurity Insights № 3 2024 102

      (--

 )     

,   ,    -

  .

 8.

   « , 

,    ?», %

Table 8.

Distribution ofanswers to the question «What idea, inyour

opinion, is capable ofuniting our society?», %

Вариант ответа

2002 г. 2023 г.

Гор од Село Область Гор од Село Область

  

  

 

 

21,0 26,4 22,6 50,9 45,1 49,3

 

  



22,9 20,5 22,1 37,3 31,8 35,8

 

  

 ,

 



7,5 8,6 7,8 25,9 19,0 23,9





 

7,0 5,7 6,6 21,3 15,7 19,7

  

 

5,4 4,0 5,0 17,1 18,3 17,4

 

,

 

 

4,0 3,5 3,9 3,9 5,7 4,4

 

, 

 

3,1 3,2 3,2 14,6 11,2 13,7

 

, 

  

 

4,1 3,0 3,9 8,5 8,3 8,5

 

, 

 

 

2,9 1,1 2,3 10,4 5,5 9,0

Государство, гражданское общество истабильность 103

Вариант ответа

2002 г. 2023 г.

Гор од Село Область Гор од Село Область

 

 

 

4,3 3,5 4,1 4,0 1,0 3,1

  0,2 0,3 0,2 1,6 4,0 2,3

  30,7 35,0 31,9 18,6 30,9 22,1

Источник: Мониторинг общественного мнения ВолНЦ РАН, N=1500.

Заключение

      -

     .   -

      -

 ,       

 .    

        .

       ,

 .

   -   -

     

  ,   . -

      .

     ,   

. ,       -

   ,     

  .      -

    ,    -

     .   

        

   ,   .

 ,  ,    

 223 .,       -

   ,  -

 ,      

  , ,   

,   .      -

,        

    . 

      

    ,  -

   .

Society andSecurity Insights № 3 2024 104

СПИСОК ИСТОЧНИКОВ

 . .,  . .   « »  -

  //   : , , -

. 218.  4. . 88–822.

 . .,  ..,  ..   : -

   //    -

.  . 223.  1. . 13–19. DOI: 1.24412/271-6141-223-

1-13-19

 . .,  . . -   -

       -

  //  . 221. . 11,  3(67). . 596–65. DOI

1.35775/PSI.221.67.3.2.

 . .,  . .     -

   // . . . 222. . 28,  4.

.56–74. DOI 1.19181/nko.222.28.4.5.

. .      -

 :      // -

   .  . 223.  3.

. 39–56. DOI: 1.24412/271-6141-223-3-39-56

 . .  « »   // -

 . 223.  1. . 91–13. DOI 1.31857/S13216252837-

 . .     : 215— 

 //   :  -

 . 216.  3(133). . 15–36. DOI 1.14515/monitoring.216.3.2.

 . .,  . .,  . .,  . .,  . . 

        // Society

andSecurity Insights. 221. . 4,  4. . 77–94. https://doi.org/1.14258/ssi(221)4-5

 . .   : - -

 //  . 214.  1. . 3–13.

 . .  ,     -

 : -  // . 221. . 2,  9.

.6–48.

 . .     

 //  . 224.  1(22). . 23–34. DOI 1.47711/868-

6351-22-23-34

 . .       //

. 223. . 2,  9 (14).

 ..,  ..,  ..     -

—       ? // 

    . 222. . 1,  11.

. 192–2.

Государство, гражданское общество истабильность 105

     / . . , . . -

, . .  [ .] ; . . . . . .:  , 223.— 32 .

 ..,  ..,  ..,  ..  

  :    -

  // Society andSecurity Insights. 221. . 4,  4. . 11–14. DOI:

1.14258/ssi(221)4-7.

 . .,  ..      

«— » (   ) //  -

. 223.  8. . 47–59. DOI 1.31857/S132162527366-5.

 . .      // -

 . 218.  2. . 173–194.

 . .      //

 . 214.  1(7). . 117–126.

 . .,  . .,  . .   -

  :    //  .

223. . 24, 1. . 71–15.

 . . « »   

:     // .

 . 212.  6. . 9–26.

 . .,  . .   - -

,     //  

 . 218. . 3,  3. . 67–86.

 . . -    -

  //  . 223.  21. C. 273–298. doi:1.19181/

ezheg.223.11

 . .   —   -

   //  . 1998.  1. . 21–34.

 . .,  . .,  ..   -

    //   . 22. 

4 (18). . 7–19. DOI: 1.15838/ptd.22.4.18.1

 . .   :  - -

 //   . 222. . 13,  2. . 12–113. DOI

1.19181/vis.222.13.2S.819

 . .   :   -

   //    . 221.

 464. . 99–112.

Liu J. H., Szpunar K. K. Structure anddynamics ofpersonal andnational event cogni-

tion // Journal ofApplied Research inMemory andCognition. Advance online publica-

tion. 222. DOI: 1.137/mac94

Urry J. What is the future? Cambridge: Polity Press, 216. 226 . DOI:1.1166/13-

27.ts.218.14299

Society andSecurity Insights № 3 2024 106

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ИНФОРМАЦИЯ ОБ АВТОРАХ/ INFORMATION ABOUT THE AUTHORS

  —   ,  

    , . , .

Kseniya E. Kosygina— Candidate ofEconomic Sciences, Senior Researcher, Vologda

Research Center ofthe Russian Academy ofSciences, Vologda, Russia.

  —     -

  , . , .

Irina M. Bakhvalova— junior researcher at the Vologda Scientic Center ofthe Russian

Academy ofSciences, Vologda, Russia.

   —     , .

, .

Ksenia A. Kulik— postgraduate student, Vologda Scientic Center ofthe Russian Acad-

emy ofSciences, Vologda, Russia.

Статья поступила вредакцию 15.07.2024;

одобрена после рецензирования 06.08.2024;

принята кпубликации 06.08.2024.

The article was submitted 15.07.2024;

approved after reviewing 06.08.2024;

accepted for publication 06.08.2024.