THE INFLUENCE OF SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM FACTORS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF KEY SECTORS OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC SPHERE OF THE ALTAI KRAI
УДК 338.27 (571.150)
Abstract
A prerequisite for the stable progressive development of the economy at any level is the predictability of the behavior of its elements. In modern conditions, the economy of the region can be affected by both external factors and internal changes.
The purpose of the study is to identify short-term and long-term factors affecting the development of key indicators of socio-economic development for the region. The article presents the results of modeling the influence of these factors on the indicators of the main economic sectors of the region and the social sphere.
The obtained results are provided by the application of econometric methodology. In particular, the methods of checking for a unit root are used, taking into account possible nonlinearity, seasonality and the presence of structural breaks, Granger causality, nonlinear cointegration relationship.
Thus, the hypothesis of a nonlinear long-term relationship between nominal accrued wages and the consumer price index has been confirmed, a long-term relationship between the coefficients of natural and migration growth, a causal relationship between the development of the main sectors of the economy of the region with the external price environment has been revealed.
Further steps are proposed to develop the results obtained, in particular, in the development, modification and control of the implementation of strategic planning documents of the region.
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Pesaran M. H., Smith R. J., Shin Y. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics. 2001. Iss. 16. Pp. 289–326. DOI: 10.1002/JAE.616.
Pesaran M. H., Shin Y. An autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach to cointegration analysis:
Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century. The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium. 1998. Pp. 371–413. DOI: 10.1017/CCOL521633230.011.
Narayan P. K. The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics. 2001. Iss. 37. Pp. 1979–1990. DOI: 10.1080/00036840500278103.
Hassler U., Wolters J. Autoregressive distributed lag models and cointegration. Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv. 2006. Iss. 90. Pp. 59–74. DOI: 10.1007/S10182–006–0221–5.
Alogoskoufis G., Smith R. On error correction models: Specification, interpretation, estimation. Journal of Economic Surveys. 1991. Vol. 5. Iss. 1. Pp. 97–128. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467–6419.1991.tb00128.x.
Cho J. S., Shin Y., Greenwood-Nimmo M. J. Recent developments of the autoregressive distributed lag modelling framework. Journal of Economic Surveys. 2023. Vol. 37. Iss. 1. Pp. 7–32. DOI: 10.1111/joes.12450.
Shin Y., Yu B., Greenwood-Nimmo M. J. Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework. Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt / eds. Sickles, R., Horrace, W. New York, 2014. Pp. 281–314. DOI: 10.1007/978–1–4899–8008–3_9.
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