TRENDS AND DETERMINANTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES IN RUSSIA

УДК 314.1 (470)

  • E. N. Grishina Vyatka State University (Kirov, Russia) Email: grishina_e1955@mail.ru
  • I. P. Lapteva Vyatka State University (Kirov, Russia) Email: irinalapteva2607@mail.ru
Keywords: demographic situation, population growth (decline), total fertility rate, migration, forecast options

Abstract

The article substantiates the need to identify trends in the development of processes demographic in individual countries and regions. The analysis of the determination of demographic processes is a necessary condition for the development of an effective demographic policy. The authors studied the dynamics of the population of the planet as whole, Europe, and Russia over the past 50 years. The assessment of the degree of influence of the measures taken in certain countries of the world on the demographic situation is given. The article deals with both methodological issues of studying the determination of demographic processes, and the results of research based on statistical information. Much attention is paid to the issues of determining the birth rate and mortality. An assessment of the impact of material payments on the birth rate is given. At the same time, the issues of determining migration processes and population aging are not left without attention. To analyze the causes of population migration in the region, the experimental planning method was used. The use of this method allowed us to identify the factors that affect migration processes and to assess the degree of influence of each of them on the level of the migration efficiency coefficient. The study showed the possibility of using the planning method in the study of socio-economic processes. The authors consider three variants of the population forecast of the Russian Federation until 2035, proposed by Rosstat, and assessed possible options for their implementation.

Downloads

Metrics

PDF views
118
Sep 13 '21Sep 16 '21Sep 19 '21Sep 22 '21Sep 25 '21Sep 28 '21Oct 01 '21Oct 04 '21Oct 07 '21Oct 10 '217.0
| |

Author Biographies

E. N. Grishina, Vyatka State University (Kirov, Russia)

кандидат экономических наук, доцент кафедры экономики

I. P. Lapteva, Vyatka State University (Kirov, Russia)

кандидат экономических наук, доцент кафедры экономики

References

Шишкина М. А., Попова Л. А. Социальное развитие // Экономические и социальные перемены: факты, тенденции, прогноз. 2017. Т. 10. № 1. C. 167.

Grant J. et. al. Low fertility and population ageing: causes, consequences and policy options. Santa Monica, 2004.

Kravdal O. Demographer’s interest in fertility trends and determinants in developed countries: Is it warranted? // Demographic Research. Vol. 22. Art. 22. Published 20 April, 2010. Pp. 663-690. URL: http://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol22/.

Захарова О. Д., Акопян А. С., Харченко В. И. Эволюция рождаемости в России во второй половине XX века: история, современность и перспективы // Проблемы прогнозирования. М., 2002. С. 94-106.

Андреев Е. М. Конечный эффект мер демографической политики в России // Мир России. 2016. № 2. С. 68-100.

Архангельский В. Н., Зинькина Ю. В., Коротаев А. В., Шульгин С. Г. Современные тенденции рождаемости в России и влияние мер государственной поддержки // Социологические исследования. 2017. № 3. С. 43-50.

D’Addio A., D’Ercole M. Trends and determinants of fertility rates in OECD countries: the role of policies // OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers. № 27. Paris. P. 47.

Cohen A., Romanov D., Dehejia R. 2013. Financial Incentives and Fertility // Review of Economics and Statistics. 2013. Vol. 950. No. 1. Pр. 1-20.

Фрейка Т., Захаров С. Эволюция рождаемости в России за полвека: оптика условных и реальных поколений // Демографическое обозрение. 2014. № 1. С. 106-143.

Захаров С. В., Богоявленский Д. Д., Исупова О. Г., Сакевич В. И., Комлева Р. Н., Чурилова Е. В. Дают ли тенденции рождаемости 2007-2012 гг. повод для оптимизма? // Население России 2012. Двадцатый ежегодный демографический доклад. М., 2014.

Зверева Н. В., В. Н. Архангельский Предварительные итоги и перспективы современной политики в области рождаемости // Федерализм. 2010. № 2 (58). С. 69-84.

Рыбаковский Л. Л., Савинков В. И., Кожевникова Н. И. Региональная динамика рождаемости и результативность демографической политики в России // Народонаселение. 2017. № 4. С. 4-18. DOI: 10.26653/1561-7785-2017-4-1.

Гришина Е. Н., Трусова Л. Н. Применение метода планирования эксперимента при исследовании региональных миграционных процессов // Успехи современной науки. 2017. № 3. С. 162-168.

REFERENCES

Shishkina M. A., Popova L. A. Social development // Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast. 2017. Vol. 10. No. 1. Р. 167.

Grant J., et. al. Low fertility and population ageing: causes, consequences and policy options. Santa Monica, 2004.

Kravdal O. Demographer’s interest in fertility trends and determinants in developed countries: Is it warranted? // Demographic Research. Vol. 22. Art. 22. Published 20 April, 2010. Pp. 663-690. URL: http://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol22/.

Zakharova O. D., Akopyan A. S., Kharchenko V. I. The evolution of fertility in Russia in the second half of the XX century: history, modernity and prospects // Forecasting problems. Institute of National Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow: 2002. Pp. 94-106.

Andreev E. M. The final effect of demographic policy measures in Russia // Mir Rossii. 2016. No. 2. Pp. 68-100.

Arkhangelsky V. N., Zinkina Yu. V., Korotaev A. V., Shulgin S. G. Modern trends in the birth rate in Russia and the impact of state support measures // Sociological research. 2017. No. 3. Pp. 43-50.

D’Addio A., D’Ercole M. Trends and determinants of fertility rates in OECD countries: the role of policies // OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers. № 27. Paris. P. 47.

Cohen A., Romanov D., Dehejia R. 2013. Financial Incentives and Fertility // Review of Economics and Statistics. 2013. Vol. 950. No. 1. Pр. 1-20.

Freika T., Zakharov S. The evolution of the birth rate in Russia over half a century: the optics of conditional and real generations // Demographic review. 2014. No. 1. Pp. 106-143.

Zakharov S. V., Bogoyavlensky D. D., Isupova O. G., Sakevich V. I., Komleva R. N., Churilova E. V. Do the trends in the birth rate of 2007-2012 give reason for optimism? // Population of Russia 2012. The twentieth annual Demographic Report. Moscow, 2014.

Zvereva N. V., Arkhangelsk V. N. Preliminary results and prospects of modern policy in the field of fertility // Federalism. 2010. No. 2 (58). Pp. 69-84.

Rybakovsky L. L., Savinkov V. I., Kozhevnikova N. I. Regional dynamics of fertility and the effectiveness of demographic policy in Russia // Population. 2017. No. 4. Pp. 4-18. DOI: 10.26653/1561-7785-2017-4-1.

Grishina E. N., Trusova L. N. Application of the method of planning an experiment in the study of regional migration processes // Success of modern science. 2017. No. 3. Pp. 162-168.

Published
2021-09-13
How to Cite
1. Grishina E. N., Lapteva I. P. TRENDS AND DETERMINANTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES IN RUSSIA // Economics Profession Business, 2021. № 3. P. 61-69. URL: http://journal.asu.ru/ec/article/view/epb202139.
Section
ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ