FORECASTING THE RISK OF LOSS OF FINANCIAL STABILITY BY MUNICIPALITIES USING QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS METHODS

УДК 330.131.7:336.144.36

  • G. V. Polygalov Altai State University (Barnaul, Russia) Email: salaters96@mail.ru
  • O. A. Mishchenko Altai State University (Barnaul, Russia) Email: olgaart-a@mail.ru
DOI_disc_logo https://doi.org/10.14258/epb201988
Keywords: financial stability, municipalities, forecasting, risk, modeling, assessment, neural network analysis

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of the possibility of forecasting and assessing the risk of loss of financial stability of municipalities. The article describes the importance and necessity of using modern and high-quality forecasting models to determine the risk of loss of financial stability of a municipality in the conditions of dynamic development of the economy of municipalities. The risks of reducing the degree of financial stability are highlighted and the mechanism of money circulation is considered in the same context. The influence of the factor of attracting labor resources to the territory of the municipality as the only way out of positioning financial instability is revealed. A methodological approach to the formation of mathematical models, both in the form of discriminate and regression equations, is structured. Calculations for determining the risk of loss of financial stability of municipalities based on discriminant, regression and neural network analysis are presented. The structure of the generated neural network is demonstrated. The priority of such studies and their importance for the future as a basis for modeling strategies for the development of the territory is justified.

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Author Biographies

G. V. Polygalov, Altai State University (Barnaul, Russia)

специалист 1 категории контрольно-ревизионного отдела комитета по финансам, налоговой и кредитной политике города Барнаула

O. A. Mishchenko, Altai State University (Barnaul, Russia)

кандидат экономических наук, доцент кафедры финансов и кредита

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Published
2020-09-14
How to Cite
1. Polygalov G. V., Mishchenko O. A. FORECASTING THE RISK OF LOSS OF FINANCIAL STABILITY BY MUNICIPALITIES USING QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS METHODS // Economics Profession Business, 2020. № 3. P. 67-73. URL: http://journal.asu.ru/ec/article/view/epb201988.
Issue
No 3 (2020): Economics Profession Business
Section
ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ

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