ОЦЕНКА ПАРАМЕТРОВ БУДУЩЕЙ ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКОЙ СИТУАЦИИ В КАЗАХСТАНЕ
Статья боковой панели
Опубликован:
янв 27, 2023
Ключевые слова:
демография, прогноз, метод передвижек, экстраполяция, байесовские методы проекции, Казахстан
Основное содержание статьи
Лазат Сейтказиевна Спанкулова
Email: spankulova@mail.ru
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1865-4681
Зауре Казбековна Чуланова
Email: zaure.ch@mail.ru
Мира Нурмаханова
Email: miranur@kimep.kz
Дана Муратбековна Кангалакова
Email: dmuratbekovna@mail.ru
Аннотация
В статье прогнозы основываются на концепции демографического перехода и теории стабильного населения, модельные таблицы смертности. Используются методы непрямого оценивания демографических показателей для стран с неполной информацией о населении. Прогнозы основываются на концепции демографического перехода и теории стабильного населения, модельные таблицы смертности. Используются методы непрямого оценивания демографических показателей для стран с неполной информацией о населении.
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Детали статьи
Как цитировать
Спанкулова, Л. С., Чуланова, З. К., Нурмаханова , М., & Кангалакова, Д. М. (2023). ОЦЕНКА ПАРАМЕТРОВ БУДУЩЕЙ ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКОЙ СИТУАЦИИ В КАЗАХСТАНЕ. Society and Security Insights, 5(4), 50-69. https://doi.org/10.14258/SSI(2022)4-03
Раздел
ИНТЕГРАЦИЯ И БЕЗОПАСНОСТЬ В СТРАНАХ АЗИАТСКОГО РЕГИОНА
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Литература
Альжанова Ф. Г., Нурланова Н. К., Днишев Ф. М. Оценка уровня и приоритетные направления модернизации регионов Казахстана // Проблемы развития территории. 2020. № 1(105). С. 124–141. doi: 10.1007/s13524-011-0040-5.
Хэ Ч. Обзорный доклад о модернизации в мире и Китае (2001–2010) / Пер. с англ. под общей редакцией Н.И. Лапина. М.: Издательство «Весь Мир», 2011. 256 с
Alkema L., Raftery A. E., Gerland P., Clark S. J., Pelletier F., Buettner T., Heilig G. K. Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries // Demography. 2011. № 48(3). P. 815–839. doi: 10.1007/s13524-011-0040-5.
Alkema L., Raftery A. E., Gerland P., Clark S. J., Pelletier F. Estimating trends in the total fertility rate with uncertainty using imperfect data: Examples from West Africa // Demographic Research. 2012. V.26, Art. 15. P. 331–362. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2012.26.15.
Alkema, L., Chao F., You D., Pedersen J., Sawyer C. C. National, regional, and global sex ratios of infant, child, and under-5 mortality and identification of countries with outlying ratios: a systematic assessment // The Lancet Global Health. 2014. Vol.2, I.9. P.e521–e530. doi: 10.1016/s2214-109x(14)70280-3.
Booth, H., Tickle, L. Mortality modelling and forecasting: a review of methods // Annals of Actuarial Science. 2018. 3(1–2). P. 3–43. DOI:10.1017/S1748499500000440
Cairns A. J. G., Blake D., Dowd K., Coughlan G. D., Epstein, D., Khalaf-Allah M. Mortality density forecasts: an analysis of six stochastic mortality models // Insurance: Mathematics and Economics. 2011. No.48 (3). P. 355–367. DOI:10.2139/ssrn.1340353
Chulanova Z. K., Ussenova A. S. Human Capital and Methodic of Determination of Its Cost: A Case of Kazakhstan // Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business. 2015. Vol. 2, No. 2. Р. 19-25. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2015.vol2.no2.19.
Girosi F., King G. Demographic forecasting. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2008. 272 p. DOI:10.1017/S1474747210000181
Lee R. D., Carter L. Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality // Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1992. 87(419). 659–671. DOI:10.1080/01621459.1992.10475265
Raftery A. E., Chunn J. L., Gerland P., Ševčíková H. Bayesian probabilistic projections of life expectancy for all countries // Demography. 2013. Vol. 50, No. 3. P. 777-801. doi: 10.1007/s13524-012-0193-x.
Shang H. L., Booth H., Hyndman R. Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: a comparison of ten principal component methods // Demographic Research. 2011. No.25(5). P. 173–214. DOI:10.4054/DEMRES.2011.25.5
Stoeldraijer L., van Duin C., van Wissen L., Janssen F. Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: the case of the Netherlands // Demographic Research. 2013. No.29(13), P. 323–354. DOI:10.4054/DEMRES.2013.29.13
Tabeau E. A review of demographic forecasting models for mortality. Forecasting mortality in developed countries: insights from a statistical, demographic and epidemiological perspective (In E. Tabeau, A. van den Berg Jeths, C. Heathcote (Eds.), Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer, 2001. P. 1–32. DOI:10.1007/0-306-47562-6_1
World Population Prospects 2019: Methodology of the United Nations population estimates and projections. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2019, 46p. Highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/423), https://population.un.org/wpp/publications/files/wpp2019_highlights.pdf
REFERENCES
Alkema, L., Raftery, A. E., Gerland, P., Clark, S. J., Pelletier, F., Buettner, T., & Heilig, G, K. (2011). Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries. Demography, 48(3), 815-39. doi: 10.1007/s13524-011-0040-5.
Alkema L., Raftery A. E., Gerland P., Clark S. J., & Pelletier F. (2012). Estimating trends in the total fertility rate with uncertainty using imperfect data: Examples from West Africa. Demographic Research, 26, Art. 15, 331-362. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2012.26.15.
Alkema, L., Chao F., You D., Pedersen J., & Sawyer C.C. (2014). National, regional, and global sex ratios of infant, child, and under-5 mortality and identification of countries with outlying ratios: a systematic assessment. The Lancet Global Health, 2 (9), e521-e530. doi: 10.1016/s2214-109x(14)70280-3.
Alzhanova, F. G., Nurlanova, N. K., & Dnishev, F. M. (2020). Assessment of level and priority guidelines of Kazakhstan regions’ modernization. Problems of Territory's Development, 1 (105), 124–141. DOI: 10.15838/ptd.2020.1.105.9 (In Rus)
Booth, H., & Tickle, L. (2008). Mortality modelling and forecasting: a review of methods. Annals of Actuarial Science, 3(1–2), 3–43. DOI:10.1017/S1748499500000440
Cairns, A. J. G., Blake, D., Dowd, K., Coughlan, G. D., Epstein, D., & Khalaf-Allah, M. (2011). Mortality density forecasts: an analysis of six stochastic mortality models. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 48(3), 355–367. DOI:10.2139/ssrn.1340353
Chulanova, Z. K., & Ussenova, A. S. (2015). Human Capital and Methodic of Determination of Its Cost: A Case of Kazakhstan. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 2 (2), 19-25. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2015.vol2.no2.19.
Girosi, F., & King, G. (2008). Demographic forecasting. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. DOI:10.1017/S1474747210000181
He Ch. Overview report on modernization in the world and China (2001-2010) / Per. from English. under the general editorship of N.I. Lapin. M .: Publishing house "Ves Mir", 2011. 256 p. (In Rus)
Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659–671. DOI:10.1080/01621459.1992.10475265
Raftery, A. E., Chunn J. L., Gerland P., & Ševčíková H.(2013) Bayesian probabilistic projections of life expectancy for all countries. Demography, 50 (3), 777-801. doi: 10.1007/s13524-012-0193-x.
Shang, H. L., Booth, H., & Hyndman, R. (2011). Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: a comparison of ten principal component methods. Demographic Research, 25(5), 173–214. DOI:10.4054/DEMRES.2011.25.5
Stoeldraijer, L., van Duin, C., van Wissen, L., & Janssen, F. (2013). Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: the case of the Netherlands. Demographic Research, 29(13), 323–354. DOI:10.4054/DEMRES.2013.29.13
Tabeau, E. (2001). A review of demographic forecasting models for mortality. In E. Tabeau, A. van den Berg Jeths, & C. Heathcote (Eds.), Forecasting mortality in developed countries: insights from a statistical, demographic and epidemiological perspective (pp. 1–32). Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer. DOI:10.1007/0-306-47562-6_1
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UN DESA) (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: Methodology of the United Nations population estimates and projections. Highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/423), https://population.un.org/wpp/publications/files/wpp2019_highlights.pdf
Хэ Ч. Обзорный доклад о модернизации в мире и Китае (2001–2010) / Пер. с англ. под общей редакцией Н.И. Лапина. М.: Издательство «Весь Мир», 2011. 256 с
Alkema L., Raftery A. E., Gerland P., Clark S. J., Pelletier F., Buettner T., Heilig G. K. Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries // Demography. 2011. № 48(3). P. 815–839. doi: 10.1007/s13524-011-0040-5.
Alkema L., Raftery A. E., Gerland P., Clark S. J., Pelletier F. Estimating trends in the total fertility rate with uncertainty using imperfect data: Examples from West Africa // Demographic Research. 2012. V.26, Art. 15. P. 331–362. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2012.26.15.
Alkema, L., Chao F., You D., Pedersen J., Sawyer C. C. National, regional, and global sex ratios of infant, child, and under-5 mortality and identification of countries with outlying ratios: a systematic assessment // The Lancet Global Health. 2014. Vol.2, I.9. P.e521–e530. doi: 10.1016/s2214-109x(14)70280-3.
Booth, H., Tickle, L. Mortality modelling and forecasting: a review of methods // Annals of Actuarial Science. 2018. 3(1–2). P. 3–43. DOI:10.1017/S1748499500000440
Cairns A. J. G., Blake D., Dowd K., Coughlan G. D., Epstein, D., Khalaf-Allah M. Mortality density forecasts: an analysis of six stochastic mortality models // Insurance: Mathematics and Economics. 2011. No.48 (3). P. 355–367. DOI:10.2139/ssrn.1340353
Chulanova Z. K., Ussenova A. S. Human Capital and Methodic of Determination of Its Cost: A Case of Kazakhstan // Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business. 2015. Vol. 2, No. 2. Р. 19-25. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2015.vol2.no2.19.
Girosi F., King G. Demographic forecasting. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2008. 272 p. DOI:10.1017/S1474747210000181
Lee R. D., Carter L. Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality // Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1992. 87(419). 659–671. DOI:10.1080/01621459.1992.10475265
Raftery A. E., Chunn J. L., Gerland P., Ševčíková H. Bayesian probabilistic projections of life expectancy for all countries // Demography. 2013. Vol. 50, No. 3. P. 777-801. doi: 10.1007/s13524-012-0193-x.
Shang H. L., Booth H., Hyndman R. Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: a comparison of ten principal component methods // Demographic Research. 2011. No.25(5). P. 173–214. DOI:10.4054/DEMRES.2011.25.5
Stoeldraijer L., van Duin C., van Wissen L., Janssen F. Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: the case of the Netherlands // Demographic Research. 2013. No.29(13), P. 323–354. DOI:10.4054/DEMRES.2013.29.13
Tabeau E. A review of demographic forecasting models for mortality. Forecasting mortality in developed countries: insights from a statistical, demographic and epidemiological perspective (In E. Tabeau, A. van den Berg Jeths, C. Heathcote (Eds.), Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer, 2001. P. 1–32. DOI:10.1007/0-306-47562-6_1
World Population Prospects 2019: Methodology of the United Nations population estimates and projections. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2019, 46p. Highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/423), https://population.un.org/wpp/publications/files/wpp2019_highlights.pdf
REFERENCES
Alkema, L., Raftery, A. E., Gerland, P., Clark, S. J., Pelletier, F., Buettner, T., & Heilig, G, K. (2011). Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries. Demography, 48(3), 815-39. doi: 10.1007/s13524-011-0040-5.
Alkema L., Raftery A. E., Gerland P., Clark S. J., & Pelletier F. (2012). Estimating trends in the total fertility rate with uncertainty using imperfect data: Examples from West Africa. Demographic Research, 26, Art. 15, 331-362. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2012.26.15.
Alkema, L., Chao F., You D., Pedersen J., & Sawyer C.C. (2014). National, regional, and global sex ratios of infant, child, and under-5 mortality and identification of countries with outlying ratios: a systematic assessment. The Lancet Global Health, 2 (9), e521-e530. doi: 10.1016/s2214-109x(14)70280-3.
Alzhanova, F. G., Nurlanova, N. K., & Dnishev, F. M. (2020). Assessment of level and priority guidelines of Kazakhstan regions’ modernization. Problems of Territory's Development, 1 (105), 124–141. DOI: 10.15838/ptd.2020.1.105.9 (In Rus)
Booth, H., & Tickle, L. (2008). Mortality modelling and forecasting: a review of methods. Annals of Actuarial Science, 3(1–2), 3–43. DOI:10.1017/S1748499500000440
Cairns, A. J. G., Blake, D., Dowd, K., Coughlan, G. D., Epstein, D., & Khalaf-Allah, M. (2011). Mortality density forecasts: an analysis of six stochastic mortality models. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 48(3), 355–367. DOI:10.2139/ssrn.1340353
Chulanova, Z. K., & Ussenova, A. S. (2015). Human Capital and Methodic of Determination of Its Cost: A Case of Kazakhstan. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 2 (2), 19-25. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2015.vol2.no2.19.
Girosi, F., & King, G. (2008). Demographic forecasting. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. DOI:10.1017/S1474747210000181
He Ch. Overview report on modernization in the world and China (2001-2010) / Per. from English. under the general editorship of N.I. Lapin. M .: Publishing house "Ves Mir", 2011. 256 p. (In Rus)
Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659–671. DOI:10.1080/01621459.1992.10475265
Raftery, A. E., Chunn J. L., Gerland P., & Ševčíková H.(2013) Bayesian probabilistic projections of life expectancy for all countries. Demography, 50 (3), 777-801. doi: 10.1007/s13524-012-0193-x.
Shang, H. L., Booth, H., & Hyndman, R. (2011). Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: a comparison of ten principal component methods. Demographic Research, 25(5), 173–214. DOI:10.4054/DEMRES.2011.25.5
Stoeldraijer, L., van Duin, C., van Wissen, L., & Janssen, F. (2013). Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: the case of the Netherlands. Demographic Research, 29(13), 323–354. DOI:10.4054/DEMRES.2013.29.13
Tabeau, E. (2001). A review of demographic forecasting models for mortality. In E. Tabeau, A. van den Berg Jeths, & C. Heathcote (Eds.), Forecasting mortality in developed countries: insights from a statistical, demographic and epidemiological perspective (pp. 1–32). Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer. DOI:10.1007/0-306-47562-6_1
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UN DESA) (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: Methodology of the United Nations population estimates and projections. Highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/423), https://population.un.org/wpp/publications/files/wpp2019_highlights.pdf