ASSESSMENT OF THE PARAMETERS OF THE FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION IN KAZAKHSTAN
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Published:
Jan 27, 2023
Keywords:
demography, forecast, method of movement, extrapolation, bayesian projection methods, Kazakhstan
Main Article Content
Lyazat S. Spankulova
Email: spankulova@mail.ru
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1865-4681
Zaure K. Chulanova
Email: zaure.ch@mail.ru
Mira B. Nurmakhanova
Email: miranur@kimep.kz
Dana M. Kangalakova
Email: dmuratbekovna@mail.ru
Abstract
In the article, forecasts are based on the concept of demographic transition and the theory of a stable population, model mortality tables. Methods of indirect estimation of demographic indicators are used for countries with incomplete information about the population. The forecasts are based on the concept of demographic transition and the theory of a stable population, model mortality tables. Methods of indirect estimation of demographic indicators are used for countries with incomplete information about the population.
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How to Cite
Spankulova, L. S., Chulanova, Z. K., Nurmakhanova , M. B., & Kangalakova, D. M. (2023). ASSESSMENT OF THE PARAMETERS OF THE FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION IN KAZAKHSTAN. Society and Security Insights, 5(4), 50-69. https://doi.org/10.14258/SSI(2022)4-03
Section
SECURITY AND INTEGRATION IN COUNTRIES OF ASIAN REGION
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References
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Alkema L., Raftery A. E., Gerland P., Clark S. J., Pelletier F., Buettner T., Heilig G. K. Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries // Demography. 2011. № 48(3). P. 815–839. doi: 10.1007/s13524-011-0040-5.
Alkema L., Raftery A. E., Gerland P., Clark S. J., Pelletier F. Estimating trends in the total fertility rate with uncertainty using imperfect data: Examples from West Africa // Demographic Research. 2012. V.26, Art. 15. P. 331–362. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2012.26.15.
Alkema, L., Chao F., You D., Pedersen J., Sawyer C. C. National, regional, and global sex ratios of infant, child, and under-5 mortality and identification of countries with outlying ratios: a systematic assessment // The Lancet Global Health. 2014. Vol.2, I.9. P.e521–e530. doi: 10.1016/s2214-109x(14)70280-3.
Booth, H., Tickle, L. Mortality modelling and forecasting: a review of methods // Annals of Actuarial Science. 2018. 3(1–2). P. 3–43. DOI:10.1017/S1748499500000440
Cairns A. J. G., Blake D., Dowd K., Coughlan G. D., Epstein, D., Khalaf-Allah M. Mortality density forecasts: an analysis of six stochastic mortality models // Insurance: Mathematics and Economics. 2011. No.48 (3). P. 355–367. DOI:10.2139/ssrn.1340353
Chulanova Z. K., Ussenova A. S. Human Capital and Methodic of Determination of Its Cost: A Case of Kazakhstan // Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business. 2015. Vol. 2, No. 2. Р. 19-25. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2015.vol2.no2.19.
Girosi F., King G. Demographic forecasting. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2008. 272 p. DOI:10.1017/S1474747210000181
Lee R. D., Carter L. Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality // Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1992. 87(419). 659–671. DOI:10.1080/01621459.1992.10475265
Raftery A. E., Chunn J. L., Gerland P., Ševčíková H. Bayesian probabilistic projections of life expectancy for all countries // Demography. 2013. Vol. 50, No. 3. P. 777-801. doi: 10.1007/s13524-012-0193-x.
Shang H. L., Booth H., Hyndman R. Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: a comparison of ten principal component methods // Demographic Research. 2011. No.25(5). P. 173–214. DOI:10.4054/DEMRES.2011.25.5
Stoeldraijer L., van Duin C., van Wissen L., Janssen F. Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: the case of the Netherlands // Demographic Research. 2013. No.29(13), P. 323–354. DOI:10.4054/DEMRES.2013.29.13
Tabeau E. A review of demographic forecasting models for mortality. Forecasting mortality in developed countries: insights from a statistical, demographic and epidemiological perspective (In E. Tabeau, A. van den Berg Jeths, C. Heathcote (Eds.), Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer, 2001. P. 1–32. DOI:10.1007/0-306-47562-6_1
World Population Prospects 2019: Methodology of the United Nations population estimates and projections. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2019, 46p. Highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/423), https://population.un.org/wpp/publications/files/wpp2019_highlights.pdf
REFERENCES
Alkema, L., Raftery, A. E., Gerland, P., Clark, S. J., Pelletier, F., Buettner, T., & Heilig, G, K. (2011). Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries. Demography, 48(3), 815-39. doi: 10.1007/s13524-011-0040-5.
Alkema L., Raftery A. E., Gerland P., Clark S. J., & Pelletier F. (2012). Estimating trends in the total fertility rate with uncertainty using imperfect data: Examples from West Africa. Demographic Research, 26, Art. 15, 331-362. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2012.26.15.
Alkema, L., Chao F., You D., Pedersen J., & Sawyer C.C. (2014). National, regional, and global sex ratios of infant, child, and under-5 mortality and identification of countries with outlying ratios: a systematic assessment. The Lancet Global Health, 2 (9), e521-e530. doi: 10.1016/s2214-109x(14)70280-3.
Alzhanova, F. G., Nurlanova, N. K., & Dnishev, F. M. (2020). Assessment of level and priority guidelines of Kazakhstan regions’ modernization. Problems of Territory's Development, 1 (105), 124–141. DOI: 10.15838/ptd.2020.1.105.9 (In Rus)
Booth, H., & Tickle, L. (2008). Mortality modelling and forecasting: a review of methods. Annals of Actuarial Science, 3(1–2), 3–43. DOI:10.1017/S1748499500000440
Cairns, A. J. G., Blake, D., Dowd, K., Coughlan, G. D., Epstein, D., & Khalaf-Allah, M. (2011). Mortality density forecasts: an analysis of six stochastic mortality models. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 48(3), 355–367. DOI:10.2139/ssrn.1340353
Chulanova, Z. K., & Ussenova, A. S. (2015). Human Capital and Methodic of Determination of Its Cost: A Case of Kazakhstan. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 2 (2), 19-25. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2015.vol2.no2.19.
Girosi, F., & King, G. (2008). Demographic forecasting. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. DOI:10.1017/S1474747210000181
He Ch. Overview report on modernization in the world and China (2001-2010) / Per. from English. under the general editorship of N.I. Lapin. M .: Publishing house "Ves Mir", 2011. 256 p. (In Rus)
Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659–671. DOI:10.1080/01621459.1992.10475265
Raftery, A. E., Chunn J. L., Gerland P., & Ševčíková H.(2013) Bayesian probabilistic projections of life expectancy for all countries. Demography, 50 (3), 777-801. doi: 10.1007/s13524-012-0193-x.
Shang, H. L., Booth, H., & Hyndman, R. (2011). Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: a comparison of ten principal component methods. Demographic Research, 25(5), 173–214. DOI:10.4054/DEMRES.2011.25.5
Stoeldraijer, L., van Duin, C., van Wissen, L., & Janssen, F. (2013). Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: the case of the Netherlands. Demographic Research, 29(13), 323–354. DOI:10.4054/DEMRES.2013.29.13
Tabeau, E. (2001). A review of demographic forecasting models for mortality. In E. Tabeau, A. van den Berg Jeths, & C. Heathcote (Eds.), Forecasting mortality in developed countries: insights from a statistical, demographic and epidemiological perspective (pp. 1–32). Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer. DOI:10.1007/0-306-47562-6_1
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UN DESA) (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: Methodology of the United Nations population estimates and projections. Highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/423), https://population.un.org/wpp/publications/files/wpp2019_highlights.pdf
Хэ Ч. Обзорный доклад о модернизации в мире и Китае (2001–2010) / Пер. с англ. под общей редакцией Н.И. Лапина. М.: Издательство «Весь Мир», 2011. 256 с
Alkema L., Raftery A. E., Gerland P., Clark S. J., Pelletier F., Buettner T., Heilig G. K. Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries // Demography. 2011. № 48(3). P. 815–839. doi: 10.1007/s13524-011-0040-5.
Alkema L., Raftery A. E., Gerland P., Clark S. J., Pelletier F. Estimating trends in the total fertility rate with uncertainty using imperfect data: Examples from West Africa // Demographic Research. 2012. V.26, Art. 15. P. 331–362. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2012.26.15.
Alkema, L., Chao F., You D., Pedersen J., Sawyer C. C. National, regional, and global sex ratios of infant, child, and under-5 mortality and identification of countries with outlying ratios: a systematic assessment // The Lancet Global Health. 2014. Vol.2, I.9. P.e521–e530. doi: 10.1016/s2214-109x(14)70280-3.
Booth, H., Tickle, L. Mortality modelling and forecasting: a review of methods // Annals of Actuarial Science. 2018. 3(1–2). P. 3–43. DOI:10.1017/S1748499500000440
Cairns A. J. G., Blake D., Dowd K., Coughlan G. D., Epstein, D., Khalaf-Allah M. Mortality density forecasts: an analysis of six stochastic mortality models // Insurance: Mathematics and Economics. 2011. No.48 (3). P. 355–367. DOI:10.2139/ssrn.1340353
Chulanova Z. K., Ussenova A. S. Human Capital and Methodic of Determination of Its Cost: A Case of Kazakhstan // Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business. 2015. Vol. 2, No. 2. Р. 19-25. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2015.vol2.no2.19.
Girosi F., King G. Demographic forecasting. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2008. 272 p. DOI:10.1017/S1474747210000181
Lee R. D., Carter L. Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality // Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1992. 87(419). 659–671. DOI:10.1080/01621459.1992.10475265
Raftery A. E., Chunn J. L., Gerland P., Ševčíková H. Bayesian probabilistic projections of life expectancy for all countries // Demography. 2013. Vol. 50, No. 3. P. 777-801. doi: 10.1007/s13524-012-0193-x.
Shang H. L., Booth H., Hyndman R. Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: a comparison of ten principal component methods // Demographic Research. 2011. No.25(5). P. 173–214. DOI:10.4054/DEMRES.2011.25.5
Stoeldraijer L., van Duin C., van Wissen L., Janssen F. Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: the case of the Netherlands // Demographic Research. 2013. No.29(13), P. 323–354. DOI:10.4054/DEMRES.2013.29.13
Tabeau E. A review of demographic forecasting models for mortality. Forecasting mortality in developed countries: insights from a statistical, demographic and epidemiological perspective (In E. Tabeau, A. van den Berg Jeths, C. Heathcote (Eds.), Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer, 2001. P. 1–32. DOI:10.1007/0-306-47562-6_1
World Population Prospects 2019: Methodology of the United Nations population estimates and projections. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2019, 46p. Highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/423), https://population.un.org/wpp/publications/files/wpp2019_highlights.pdf
REFERENCES
Alkema, L., Raftery, A. E., Gerland, P., Clark, S. J., Pelletier, F., Buettner, T., & Heilig, G, K. (2011). Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries. Demography, 48(3), 815-39. doi: 10.1007/s13524-011-0040-5.
Alkema L., Raftery A. E., Gerland P., Clark S. J., & Pelletier F. (2012). Estimating trends in the total fertility rate with uncertainty using imperfect data: Examples from West Africa. Demographic Research, 26, Art. 15, 331-362. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2012.26.15.
Alkema, L., Chao F., You D., Pedersen J., & Sawyer C.C. (2014). National, regional, and global sex ratios of infant, child, and under-5 mortality and identification of countries with outlying ratios: a systematic assessment. The Lancet Global Health, 2 (9), e521-e530. doi: 10.1016/s2214-109x(14)70280-3.
Alzhanova, F. G., Nurlanova, N. K., & Dnishev, F. M. (2020). Assessment of level and priority guidelines of Kazakhstan regions’ modernization. Problems of Territory's Development, 1 (105), 124–141. DOI: 10.15838/ptd.2020.1.105.9 (In Rus)
Booth, H., & Tickle, L. (2008). Mortality modelling and forecasting: a review of methods. Annals of Actuarial Science, 3(1–2), 3–43. DOI:10.1017/S1748499500000440
Cairns, A. J. G., Blake, D., Dowd, K., Coughlan, G. D., Epstein, D., & Khalaf-Allah, M. (2011). Mortality density forecasts: an analysis of six stochastic mortality models. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 48(3), 355–367. DOI:10.2139/ssrn.1340353
Chulanova, Z. K., & Ussenova, A. S. (2015). Human Capital and Methodic of Determination of Its Cost: A Case of Kazakhstan. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 2 (2), 19-25. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2015.vol2.no2.19.
Girosi, F., & King, G. (2008). Demographic forecasting. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. DOI:10.1017/S1474747210000181
He Ch. Overview report on modernization in the world and China (2001-2010) / Per. from English. under the general editorship of N.I. Lapin. M .: Publishing house "Ves Mir", 2011. 256 p. (In Rus)
Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659–671. DOI:10.1080/01621459.1992.10475265
Raftery, A. E., Chunn J. L., Gerland P., & Ševčíková H.(2013) Bayesian probabilistic projections of life expectancy for all countries. Demography, 50 (3), 777-801. doi: 10.1007/s13524-012-0193-x.
Shang, H. L., Booth, H., & Hyndman, R. (2011). Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: a comparison of ten principal component methods. Demographic Research, 25(5), 173–214. DOI:10.4054/DEMRES.2011.25.5
Stoeldraijer, L., van Duin, C., van Wissen, L., & Janssen, F. (2013). Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: the case of the Netherlands. Demographic Research, 29(13), 323–354. DOI:10.4054/DEMRES.2013.29.13
Tabeau, E. (2001). A review of demographic forecasting models for mortality. In E. Tabeau, A. van den Berg Jeths, & C. Heathcote (Eds.), Forecasting mortality in developed countries: insights from a statistical, demographic and epidemiological perspective (pp. 1–32). Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer. DOI:10.1007/0-306-47562-6_1
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UN DESA) (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: Methodology of the United Nations population estimates and projections. Highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/423), https://population.un.org/wpp/publications/files/wpp2019_highlights.pdf