CLIMATE CHANGE PERCEPTION BY THE EXPERT COMMUNITY IN MONGOLIA'S INLAND MOUNTAIN REGIONS: ITS ROLE IN ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION AND POPULATION ADAPTATION
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Published:
Nov 19, 2025
Keywords:
climate change perception, environmental situation, economic risks, glacier melting, public awareness, Mongolian Altai
Main Article Content
S.G. Maximova
Email: svet-maximova@yandex.ru
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4613-4966
D.A. Omelchenko
Email: daria.omelchenko@mail.ru
S.A. Malyavko
Email: malyavkosofya@mail.ru
Abstract
This article analyzes the perception of climate change issues, their integration into the overall socioeconomic development agenda of regions, reflecting the state of natural and socio-ecological systems, and changes in public consciousness, allowing for an assessment of adaptation strategies and factors. The empirical basis of the study was formed by the results of an expert survey conducted through in-depth interviews in three aimags of Mongolia, including government officials (administrations), employees of natural resource departments, climate centers, and pastoralists (2024, Bayan-Ulgii aimag, Khovd aimag, and Uvs aimag, N=48). The greatest challenges are observed in rural areas, where climate change intersects with socioeconomic development patterns in the post-transition period. After decades of a planned economy with clearly defined livestock specialization, distributed pastures, planned agricultural output, and significant state support, economic liberalization, the development of market relations, and privatization of collective farms in the 1990s, on the one hand, led to a transformation of livestock farms, their autonomy, especially in remote areas, and, on the other hand, contributed to a significant increase in the national livestock population and a change in its structure (toward an increase in the number of goats, whose wool is used for cashmere production). It is shown that the Mongolian expert community has a clear assessment of climate change. For high-altitude regions experiencing intense glacier melt, the consequences of climate change are inevitable and are a subject of discussion among government officials, natural resource department employees, climate centers, and livestock breeders. It is revealed that in all three aimags of Mongolia the population is experiencing serious consequences of climate change, affecting their health, agriculture, and way of life. Key challenges include unpredictable seasons, water shortages, deteriorating pastures, air pollution, and a lack of medical and infrastructure resources. The study's findings indicate that climate change is compounded by socioeconomic problems that are likely to worsen as the negative impacts of climate risks increase.
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Maximova, S., Omelchenko, D., Maximova, V., & Malyavko, S. (2025). CLIMATE CHANGE PERCEPTION BY THE EXPERT COMMUNITY IN MONGOLIA’S INLAND MOUNTAIN REGIONS: ITS ROLE IN ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION AND POPULATION ADAPTATION. Society and Security Insights, 8(3), 13-38. https://doi.org/10.14258/SSI(2025)3-01
Section
SECURITY AND INTEGRATION IN COUNTRIES OF ASIAN REGION
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Tibig L. Climate Change in the Asian Region, including Mongolia // Global Warming of 1.5 ºC - Do We Still Have Time? Outreach Event on IPCC Work and Findings. Available at: https://apps.ipcc.ch/outreach/aboutevent.php?q=453.
Ulambayar T., Fernández-Giménez M. E. How community-based rangeland management achieves positive social outcomes in Mongolia: A moderated mediation analysis // Land Use Policy. 2019. Vol. 82. P. 93-104.
Venable N. B. H. Hydroclimatological data and analyses from a headwaters region of Mongolia as boundary objects in interdisciplinary climate change research // Frontiers of Earth Science. 2017. Vol. 11. P. 457-468.
Venable N. B., Fassnacht S. R., Hendricks A. D., Action N. Spatial changes in climate across Mongolia // Proceedings of Building Resilience of Mongolian Rangelands: A Trans-Disciplinary Research Conference. 2015. June 9-10, Colorado State University. Libraries.
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Myagmarsuren, A., & Galtbayar, S. (2021). Climate change impact on social and economic sectors in Mongolia. In Environmental Science and Technology International Conference (ESTIC 2021) (pp. 42–47). Atlantis Press.
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Oerlemans, J. (2001). Glaciers and climate change. CRC Press.
Orkhonselenge, A., & Harbor, J. M. (2018). Impacts of modern glacier changes on surface water resources in western and northern Mongolia. Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 10(6), 559–570.
Sainnemekh, S., Barrio, I. C., Densambuu, B., Bestelmeyer, B., & Aradóttir, Á. L. R. (2022). Rangeland degradation in Mongolia: A systematic review of the evidence. Journal of Arid Environments, 196, 104654.
Tibig, L. (n.d.). Climate change in the Asian region, including Mongolia. In Global warming of 1.5 ºC - Do we still have time? Outreach event on IPCC work and findings. URL: https://apps.ipcc.ch/outreach/aboutevent.php?q=453
Ulambayar, T., & Fernández-Giménez, M. E. (2019). How community-based rangeland management achieves positive social outcomes in Mongolia: A moderated mediation analysis. Land Use Policy, 82, 93–104.
Venable, N. B. H. (2017). Hydroclimatological data and analyses from a headwaters region of Mongolia as boundary objects in interdisciplinary climate change research. Frontiers of Earth Science, 11, 457–468.
Venable, N. B., Fassnacht, S. R., Hendricks, A. D., & Action, N. (2015). Spatial changes in climate across Mongolia. In Proceedings of Building Resilience of Mongolian Rangelands: A Trans-Disciplinary Research Conference (June 9-10). Colorado State University Libraries.
Yembuu, B. (2016). Mongolian nomads: Effects of globalization and social change. In Everyday knowledge, education and sustainable futures: Transdisciplinary approaches in the Asia-Pacific region (pp. 89–105).
Ганюшкин Д. А., Отгонбаяр Д., Чистяков К. В., Кунаева Е. П., Волков И. В. Современное оледенение хребта Цамбагарав (северо‑западная Монголия) и его изменение с максимума малого ледникового периода // Лед и Снег. 2016. Т. 56. № 4. С. 437-452. DOI: 10.15356/2076-6734-2016-4-437-452.
Гомбожапов А. Д. Анклав номадизма: монгольские кочевники в меняющейся современности // Ойкумена. Регионоведческие исследования. 2017. № 2 (41). С. 29-36.
Михалев А. В. «Мягкая сила» современной Монголии и приграничные регионы России // Россия и современный мир. 2014. № 1 (82). С. 93-101.
Рэгдэл Д., Дугаржав Ч., Гунин П. Д. Экологические требования к социально-экономическому развитию Монголии в условиях аридизации климата // Аридные экосистемы. 2012. Т. 18. № 1 (50). С. 5-17.
Сыромятина М. В., Курочкин Ю. Н., Чистяков К. В., Аюурзана Ч. Современное состояние и изменения ледников горного массива Табын-Богдо-Ола (Монголия) // Лед и снег. 2014. Т. 54. № 3. С. 31-38.
Сэр-Од Ц., Гансух Я., Аюурзана Ч., Гурвандаваа Б., Отгонзориг А. Исследование вечной мерзлоты гор Монгольского Алтая (на примере Цагааннуур, басейн) // Природные условия, история и культура Западной Монголии и сопредельных регионов. 2015. С. 147-150.
Терентьев В. И. Городская идентичность современных монгольских кочевников // Известия лаборатории древних технологий. 2020. Т. 16. № 3 (36). С. 141-149.
Энхтувшин Б., Курас Л. В., Цыбенов Б. Д. Глобализация и традиционное скотоводство монгольских кочевников // Гуманитарный вектор. Серия: Филология, востоковедение. 2013. № 4 (36). С. 235-243.
Bruegger R. A., Jigjsuren O., Fernández-Giménez, M. E. Herder observations of rangeland change in Mongolia: indicators, causes, and application to community-based management // Rangeland Ecology & Management. 2014. Vol. 67. No. 2. P. 119-131.
Dagvadorj D., Batjargal Z., Natsagdorj L., eds. Mongolia Second Assessment Report on Climate Change 2014. Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia: Mongolian Ministry of Environment and Green Development, 2014.
Dashtseren A. Permafrost in Mongolia // The Physical Geography of Mongolia. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. P. 119-133.
Davaa G. Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Mongolia // Proceedings of Consultative Meeting on Integration of Climate Change Adaptation into Sustainable Development in Mongolia, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), 2010. P. 30-36.
Gardelle L., Zhao Z. Being a herder in contemporary Mongolia: Nomadic identity and nationhood building at school // Asian Ethnicity. 2019. Vol. 20. No, 3. P. 364-385.
Goulden C. E., Mead J., Horwitz R., Goulden M., Nandintsetseg B., McCormick S. et al. Interviews of Mongolian herders and high resolution precipitation data reveal an increase in short heavy rains and thunderstorm activity in semi-arid Mongolia // Climatic Change. 2016. Vol. 136. P. 281-295.
Hock R., Huss M. Glaciers and climate change // Climate change. Elsevier, 2021. P. 157-176.
Jigjsuren O., Baival B., Nayanaa K., Jargalsaikhan A., Dash K., Badamkhand B. et al. Evaluating the impact of climate change based on herders' observations and comparing it with hydro-climatic and remote sensing data // Proceedings of Building resilience of Mongolian rangelands: a trans-disciplinary research conference. 2015. June 9-10, Colorado State University. Libraries.
Kamp U., Krumwiede B., McManigal K., Pan C., Walther M., Dashtseren A. The glaciers of Mongolia // INSTAAR Occas. Pap. 2013. No. 61.
Karthe D., Chalov S., Borchardt D. Water Resources and Their Management in Central Asia in the Early Twenty First Century: Status, Challenges and Future Prospects // Environmental Earth Science. 2015. Vol. 73. С. 487-499. DOI: 10.1007/s12665-014-3789-1.
Khishigbayar J., Fernández-Giménez M. E., Angerer J. P., Reid R. S., Chantsallkham J., Baasandorj Y., Zumberelmaa D. Mongolian rangelands at a tipping point? Biomass and cover are stable but composition shifts and richness declines after 20 years of grazing and increasing temperatures // Journal of Arid Environments. 2015. Vol. 115. P. 100-112.
Lu N., Wilske B., Ni J., John R., Chen J. Climate change in Inner Mongolia from 1955 to 2005—trends at regional, biome and local scales // Environmental Research Letters. 2009. Vol. 4. No, 4. P. 045006. URL: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045006.
Myadar O. Mobility and displacement: Nomadism, identity and postcolonial narratives in Mongolia. Routledge, 2020.
Myagmarsuren A., Galtbayar S. Climate Change Impact on Social and Economic Sectors in Mongolia // Environmental Science and Technology International Conference (ESTIC 2021). 2021. P. 42-47. Atlantis Press.
Nandintsetseg B., Boldgiv B., Chang J., Ciais P., Davaanyam E., Batbold A. et al. Risk and vulnerability of Mongolian grasslands under climate change // Environmental Research Letters. 2021. Vol. 16. No. 3. 034035.
Nanzad L., Zhang J., Tuvdendorj B., Nabil M., Zhang S., Bai Y. NDVI anomaly for drought monitoring and its correlation with climate factors over Mongolia from 2000 to 2016 // Journal of Arid Environments. 2019. Vol. 164. P. 69-77.
Oerlemans, J. Glaciers and climate change. CRC Press, 2001.
Orkhonselenge A., Harbor J. M. Impacts of modern glacier changes on surface water resources in western and northern Mongolia // Journal of Water Resource and Protection. 2018. Vol. 10. No. 06. P. 559-570.
Sainnemekh S., Barrio I. C., Densambuu B., Bestelmeyer B., Aradóttir Á. L. Rangeland degradation in Mongolia: A systematic review of the evidence // Journal of Arid Environments. 2022. Vol. 196. 104654.
Tibig L. Climate Change in the Asian Region, including Mongolia // Global Warming of 1.5 ºC - Do We Still Have Time? Outreach Event on IPCC Work and Findings. Available at: https://apps.ipcc.ch/outreach/aboutevent.php?q=453.
Ulambayar T., Fernández-Giménez M. E. How community-based rangeland management achieves positive social outcomes in Mongolia: A moderated mediation analysis // Land Use Policy. 2019. Vol. 82. P. 93-104.
Venable N. B. H. Hydroclimatological data and analyses from a headwaters region of Mongolia as boundary objects in interdisciplinary climate change research // Frontiers of Earth Science. 2017. Vol. 11. P. 457-468.
Venable N. B., Fassnacht S. R., Hendricks A. D., Action N. Spatial changes in climate across Mongolia // Proceedings of Building Resilience of Mongolian Rangelands: A Trans-Disciplinary Research Conference. 2015. June 9-10, Colorado State University. Libraries.
Yembuu B. Mongolian nomads: Effects of globalization and social change // Everyday Knowledge, Education and Sustainable Futures: Transdisciplinary Approaches in the Asia-Pacific Region. 2016. P. 89-105.
REFERENCES
Badaraev, D. D. (2016). Traditional economic practices of Mongolian-speaking nomads: Cattle breeding in the adjacent territories of Mongolia and Russia. Bulletin of the Institute of Sociology, 3(18), 175–194. (In Russ.).
Ganyushkin, D. A., Otgonbayar, D., Chistyakov, K. V., Kunaeva, E. P., & Volkov, I. V. (2016). Modern glaciation of the Tsambagarav Ridge (northwestern Mongolia) and its changes since the Little Ice Age Maximum. Ice and Snow, 56(4), 437–452. https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2016-4-437-452. (In Russ.).
Gombozhapov, A. D. (2017). Enclave of nomadism: Mongolian nomads in a changing modernity. Oikumena. Regional Studies, 2(41), 29–36. (In Russ.).
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