In the center of a problem region: ethnopolitical processes, risks and threats in Stavropol krai and Karachay-Cherkessia

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Published: Feb 1, 2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.14258/SSI(2025)4-03
Keywords:
ethnopolitical processes, risks and threats to ethnopolitical stability, factor analysis, the North Caucasus, Stavropol Krai, Karachay-Cherkess Republic

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Viktor A. Avksentyev
Federal Research Center the Southern Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0762-3529
Email: vaavksentev@mail.ru

Abstract

The article is devoted to the analysis of the dynamics of ethnopolitical processes in two subregions of the North Caucasus – Stavropol Krai and Karachay-Cherkess Republic. The purpose of the article is to clarify medium-term forecasts of the dynamics of the ethnopolitical situation in the two territories, taking into account the latest threats and challenges. The study is based on a combination of three approaches: conflictological approach, risk studies and geopolitical paradigm. The empirical base was formed on the basis of long-term monitoring of the ethnopolitical situation and confessional processes. Content analysis of regional information resources, event analysis of the regional ethnopolitical situation, factor analysis based on the study of statistical data, and expert surveys were used. The results presented in the article are based on research work conducted in 2022-2025. Factors of destabilization of the ethnopolitical situation are organized into three blocks: threats to the constitutional order; risks in the political and administrative sphere; risks in the socio-economic sphere. It was concluded that the authorities in two regions managed to curb the sharp increase in threats and risks to ethnopolitical stability caused by the aggravation of geopolitical processes. The dynamics of factors determining the development of the regional ethnopolitical situation in the middle of the third decade of the 21st century, the absence of resonant conflicts with ethnic component and protest activity make it possible to steadily prolong the positive conflict scenario in Stavropol Krai for the second half of the decade. For Karachay-Cherkessia, the most likely is an inertial moderate conflict scenario. Thus, Stavropol Krai and the Karachay-Cherkessia Republic are the "western pole of stability" in the North Caucasus. The analysis showed a much more complex determination of the regional ethnopolitical process compared to traditional explanatory models. Economic factors, traditionally considered as one of main sources conflict generators, do not show a significant impact on the dynamics of ethnosocial and ethnopolitical processes. At present, such role play specific features of functioning of regional political regimes: the effectiveness of authorities, the mechanism for the formation of power, the depth of clan ties, corruption. An important factor in ensuring stability in the communities of the two territories is the dominance of secularism both in power relations and in public life in general.

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How to Cite
Avksentyev, V. A. (2026). In the center of a problem region: ethnopolitical processes, risks and threats in Stavropol krai and Karachay-Cherkessia. Society and Security Insights, 8(4), 50-63. https://doi.org/10.14258/SSI(2025)4-03
Issue
Vol 8 No 4 (2025): Regular Issue
Section
SECURITY AND INTEGRATION IN COUNTRIES OF ASIAN REGION
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Authors retain the copyright of their manuscripts, and all Open Access articles are distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided that the original work is properly cited.
Author Biography

Viktor A. Avksentyev, Federal Research Center the Southern Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Victor A. Avksentyev – Dr. Sci (Philosophy), Professor, Chief Researcher, Head of Laboratory, Honorary Member of the Presidium of the Southern Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences

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