Demographic Potential of North African Countries – Transition or Institutional Diversity?
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Published:
Apr 28, 2026
Keywords:
demographic potential, Northern Africa, population reproduction, public health, demographic imbalances, demographic transition theory, epidemiological transition theory, institutional approach to population
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Abstract
The article analyzes state of the demographic potential of North African countries and interprets its imbalances from the perspective of demographic transition theories and institutional diversity. Authors aim to compare components of the demographic potential of North African countries in «diachrony and synchrony». Analysis of the demographic potential of North African countries based on data from the UN and the WHO and their comparison in dynamics over the period 1950-2020 revealed ambivalent trends. Amid demographic processes that are similar in direction (population growth, declining birthrates, rising life expectancy), which can be explained from the position of demographic transition theory, new forms of demographic asymmetry are forming in this sub-region. For their analysis, it is important to consider national context of demographic changes. The authors substantiate the need for a synergy of demographic, epidemiological transition theories and institutional approach to population to explain the demographic specifics of North African countries. It is concluded that to maintain high-level demographic potential it is important to preserve cultural traditions and a responsible attitude of government and society toward population.
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Noskova, A. V., & Fetsenko, A. V. (2026). Demographic Potential of North African Countries – Transition or Institutional Diversity?. Society and Security Insights, 9(1), 67-85. https://doi.org/10.14258/ssi(2026)1-04
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STATE, CIVIL SOCIETY AND STABILITY
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References
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Абрамова И.О. Социально-демографические процессы и экономический рост в странах Африки (пример Североафриканского субрегиона) // Проблемы современной экономики. 2008. № 4(28). С. 123-130.
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Волков С.Н., Ткаченко А.А. Северная Африка: экономическое развитие и процессы модернизации. Часть 1 // Азия и Африка сегодня. 2018. № 12(737). С. 37-41. DOI: 10.31857/S032150750002570-9
Доброхлеб В.Г. Мир для всех возрастов // Народонаселение. 2006. № 1(31). С. 076-085.
Зверева Н.В. Демографический переход: спор о теориях разного уровня // Демографическое обозрение. 2015. Т. 2, № 1. С. 6-23.
Ионцев В.А., Узкая Ю.А. Евразийский путь демографического развития в России как вызов глобально-либеральной модели демографического перехода // Уровень жизни населения регионов России. 2024. Т. 20, № 4. С. 597—611. DOI: 10.52180/1999-9836_2024_20_4_9_597_611
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Клупт М.А. Региональные альтернативы глобального демографического развития // Общественные науки и современность. 2012. № 2. С. 66-77.
Клупт М.А. Теория демографического развития: институциональная перспектива // Общественные науки и современность. 2005. № 2. С. 139-149.
Омран А.Р. Теория эпидемиологического перехода: взгляд 30 лет спустя // Демографическое обозрение. 2019. Т. 6, № 1. С. 177-216. DOI: 10.17323/demreview. v6i1.9117
Рыбаковский О.Л. Демографический потенциал: сущность, структура и основные факторы // Уровень жизни населения регионов России. 2023. Т. 19, № 3. С. 319-326.DOI: 10.52180/1999-9836_2023_19_3_1_319_326
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Bhattarai K., Yousef. K. Colonial Past and Current Ruling Systems. In: The Middle East. World Regional Geography Book Series. // Springer, Cham. 2025. P. 83-103. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-83967-2_4
Goldstone J. The New Population Bomb. The Four Megatrends That Will Change the World // Foreign Affairs. 2010. Vol.89. No.1. P. 31-43.
Lunz W., Goujon A., Kc. S., Stonawski M., Stilianakis N. Demographic and Human Capital Scenarios for the 21st Century: 2018 assessment for 201 countries // Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. 2018. DOI: 10.2760/835878
Notestein F.W. Population. The Long View. In: Food for the World. Th. W. Schultz, editor. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. 1945. P. 36-57.
Puschmann P.,Matthijs, K. The Demographic Transition in the Arab World: The Dual Role of Marriage in Family Dynamics and Population Growth. In book: Population Change in Europe, the Middle-East and North Africa. Beyond the Demographic Divide.2015. P. 119-171. DOI: 10.4324/9781315601496-12
Regmi K.R. Classical Demographic Transition Theory: Compare and Contrast Between Classical European and Contemporary Third World. // Academia Letters. 2021. DOI: 10.20935/AL1967
ReherD., Requena M.The mid-twentieth century fertility boom from a global perspective. // The History of the Family. 2015. Vol.20. No.3. P. 420-445. DOI: 10.1080/1081602X.2014.944553
Reid A. Why a long-term perspective is beneficial for demographers. Population Studies. 2021. Vol.75(sup1). P. 157-177. DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.2002393
REFERENCES
References
Abramova, I. O. (2022). Africa’s population in conditions of the world order transformation. Asia and Africa Today, 12, 5–15. https://doi.org/10.31857/S032150750023555-2 (In Russ.).
Abramova, I. O. (2011). Developing countries in the world economy of the 21st century: New demographic determinants. Asia and Africa Today, 6(647), 23–29. (In Russ.).
Abramova, I. O. (2008). Socio-demographic processes and economic growth in African countries (The case of the North African subregion). Problems of Modern Economics, 4(28), 123–130. (In Russ.).
Vishnevsky, A. G. (2019). Demographic transition and the problem of demographic self-regulation: A reply to A. B. Sinelnikov. Sociological Journal, 25(4), 93–104. https://doi.org/10.19181/socjour.2019.25.4.6820 (In Russ.).
Vishnevsky, A. G. (2009). The end of North-centrism. Russia in Global Affairs, 7(5), 180–196. (In Russ.).
Vishnevsky, A. G. (2015). After the demographic transition: Divergence, convergence or diversity? Social Sciences and Modernity, 2, 112–129. (In Russ.).
Volkov, S. N., & Tkachenko, A. A. (2018). North Africa: Economic development and modernization processes. Part 1. Asia and Africa Today, 12(737), 37–41. https://doi.org/10.31857/S032150750002570-9 (In Russ.).
Dobrokhleb, V. G. (2006). The world for all ages. Population, 1(31), 76–85. (In Russ.).
Zvereva, N. V. (2015). The demographic transition: Debate on theories of different levels. Demographic Review, 2(1), 6–23. (In Russ.).
Iontsev, V. A., & Uzkaya, Yu. A. (2024). The Eurasian path of demographic development in Russia as a challenge to the global liberal model of demographic transition. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia, 20(4), 597–611. https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2024_20_4_9_597_611 (In Russ.).
Klupt, M. A. (2008). Demography of the regions of the Earth: Events of recent demographic history. Saint Petersburg: Piter. (In Russ.).
Klupt, M. A. (2012). Regional alternatives to global demographic development. Social Sciences and Modernity, (2), 66–77. (In Russ.).
Klupt, M. A. (2005). Theory of demographic development: An institutional perspective. Social Sciences and Modernity, (2), 139–149. (In Russ.).
Omran, A. R. (2019). The epidemiologic transition theory revisited thirty years later. Demographic Review, 6(1), 177–216. https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v6i1.9117 (In Russ.).
Rybakovskiy, O. L. (2023). Demographic potential: Essence, structure and main factors. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia, 19(3), 319–326. https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2023_19_3_1_319_326 (In Russ.).
Starodubtseva, E. B., Avdeeva, A. I., & Mamedov, T. N. (2025). Financial and economic cooperation between Russia and North African countries: Barriers and strategies of overcoming. Regional Economic Issues, 3(64), 259–277. (In Russ.).
Bhattarai, K., & Yousef, M. (2025). Colonial past and current ruling systems. In The Middle East (World Regional Geography book series, pp. 83–103). Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-83967-2_4
Goldstone, J. (2010). The new population bomb: The four megatrends that will change the world. Foreign Affairs, 89(1), 31–43.
Lutz, W., Goujon, A., KC, S., Stonawski, M., & Stilianakis, N. (2018). Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century: 2018 assessment for 201 countries. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. https://doi.org/10.2760/835878
Notestein, F. W. (1945). Population: The long view. In T. W. Schultz (Ed.), Food for the world (pp. 36–57). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Puschmann, P., & Matthijs, K. (2015). The demographic transition in the Arab world: The dual role of marriage in family dynamics and population growth. In Population change in Europe, the Middle-East and North Africa: Beyond the demographic divide (pp. 119–171). https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315601496-12
Regmi, K. R. (2021). Classical demographic transition theory: Compare and contrast between classical European and contemporary Third World. Academia Letters. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL1967
Reher, D., & Requena, M. (2015). The mid-twentieth century fertility boom from a global perspective. The History of the Family, 20(3), 420–445. https://doi.org/10.1080/1081602X.2014.944553
Reid, A. (2021). Why a long-term perspective is beneficial for demographers. Population Studies, 75(Suppl. 1), 157–177. https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2021.2002393
Абрамова И.О. Развивающиеся страны в мировой экономике ХХI века: новые демографические детерминанты // Азия и Африка сегодня. 2011. № 6(647). С. 23-29.
Абрамова И.О. Социально-демографические процессы и экономический рост в странах Африки (пример Североафриканского субрегиона) // Проблемы современной экономики. 2008. № 4(28). С. 123-130.
Вишневский А.Г. Демографический переход и проблема демографического саморегулирования. Ответ А.Б. Синельникову // Социологический журнал. 2019. Т. 25, № 4. С. 93-104. DOI: 10.19181 / socjour.2019.25.4.6820
Вишневский А.Г. Конец североцентризма // Россия в глобальной политике.2009. Т. 7, № 5. С. 180-196.
Вишневский А.Г. После демографического перехода: дивергенция, конвергенция или разнообразие? // Общественные науки и современность.2015. № 2. С. 112-129.
Волков С.Н., Ткаченко А.А. Северная Африка: экономическое развитие и процессы модернизации. Часть 1 // Азия и Африка сегодня. 2018. № 12(737). С. 37-41. DOI: 10.31857/S032150750002570-9
Доброхлеб В.Г. Мир для всех возрастов // Народонаселение. 2006. № 1(31). С. 076-085.
Зверева Н.В. Демографический переход: спор о теориях разного уровня // Демографическое обозрение. 2015. Т. 2, № 1. С. 6-23.
Ионцев В.А., Узкая Ю.А. Евразийский путь демографического развития в России как вызов глобально-либеральной модели демографического перехода // Уровень жизни населения регионов России. 2024. Т. 20, № 4. С. 597—611. DOI: 10.52180/1999-9836_2024_20_4_9_597_611
Клупт М.А. Демография регионов Земли. События новейшей демографической истории: Учебное пособие. Санкт-Петербург: Питер, 2008. 346 с. ISBN 978-5-91180-584-5.
Клупт М.А. Региональные альтернативы глобального демографического развития // Общественные науки и современность. 2012. № 2. С. 66-77.
Клупт М.А. Теория демографического развития: институциональная перспектива // Общественные науки и современность. 2005. № 2. С. 139-149.
Омран А.Р. Теория эпидемиологического перехода: взгляд 30 лет спустя // Демографическое обозрение. 2019. Т. 6, № 1. С. 177-216. DOI: 10.17323/demreview. v6i1.9117
Рыбаковский О.Л. Демографический потенциал: сущность, структура и основные факторы // Уровень жизни населения регионов России. 2023. Т. 19, № 3. С. 319-326.DOI: 10.52180/1999-9836_2023_19_3_1_319_326
Стародубцева Е.Б., Авдеева А.И., Мамедов Т.Н. Финансово-экономическое сотрудничество России со странами Северной Африки: барьеры и стратегии преодоления // Вопросы региональной экономики. 2025. № 3(64). С. 259-277.
Bhattarai K., Yousef. K. Colonial Past and Current Ruling Systems. In: The Middle East. World Regional Geography Book Series. // Springer, Cham. 2025. P. 83-103. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-83967-2_4
Goldstone J. The New Population Bomb. The Four Megatrends That Will Change the World // Foreign Affairs. 2010. Vol.89. No.1. P. 31-43.
Lunz W., Goujon A., Kc. S., Stonawski M., Stilianakis N. Demographic and Human Capital Scenarios for the 21st Century: 2018 assessment for 201 countries // Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. 2018. DOI: 10.2760/835878
Notestein F.W. Population. The Long View. In: Food for the World. Th. W. Schultz, editor. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. 1945. P. 36-57.
Puschmann P.,Matthijs, K. The Demographic Transition in the Arab World: The Dual Role of Marriage in Family Dynamics and Population Growth. In book: Population Change in Europe, the Middle-East and North Africa. Beyond the Demographic Divide.2015. P. 119-171. DOI: 10.4324/9781315601496-12
Regmi K.R. Classical Demographic Transition Theory: Compare and Contrast Between Classical European and Contemporary Third World. // Academia Letters. 2021. DOI: 10.20935/AL1967
ReherD., Requena M.The mid-twentieth century fertility boom from a global perspective. // The History of the Family. 2015. Vol.20. No.3. P. 420-445. DOI: 10.1080/1081602X.2014.944553
Reid A. Why a long-term perspective is beneficial for demographers. Population Studies. 2021. Vol.75(sup1). P. 157-177. DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.2002393
REFERENCES
References
Abramova, I. O. (2022). Africa’s population in conditions of the world order transformation. Asia and Africa Today, 12, 5–15. https://doi.org/10.31857/S032150750023555-2 (In Russ.).
Abramova, I. O. (2011). Developing countries in the world economy of the 21st century: New demographic determinants. Asia and Africa Today, 6(647), 23–29. (In Russ.).
Abramova, I. O. (2008). Socio-demographic processes and economic growth in African countries (The case of the North African subregion). Problems of Modern Economics, 4(28), 123–130. (In Russ.).
Vishnevsky, A. G. (2019). Demographic transition and the problem of demographic self-regulation: A reply to A. B. Sinelnikov. Sociological Journal, 25(4), 93–104. https://doi.org/10.19181/socjour.2019.25.4.6820 (In Russ.).
Vishnevsky, A. G. (2009). The end of North-centrism. Russia in Global Affairs, 7(5), 180–196. (In Russ.).
Vishnevsky, A. G. (2015). After the demographic transition: Divergence, convergence or diversity? Social Sciences and Modernity, 2, 112–129. (In Russ.).
Volkov, S. N., & Tkachenko, A. A. (2018). North Africa: Economic development and modernization processes. Part 1. Asia and Africa Today, 12(737), 37–41. https://doi.org/10.31857/S032150750002570-9 (In Russ.).
Dobrokhleb, V. G. (2006). The world for all ages. Population, 1(31), 76–85. (In Russ.).
Zvereva, N. V. (2015). The demographic transition: Debate on theories of different levels. Demographic Review, 2(1), 6–23. (In Russ.).
Iontsev, V. A., & Uzkaya, Yu. A. (2024). The Eurasian path of demographic development in Russia as a challenge to the global liberal model of demographic transition. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia, 20(4), 597–611. https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2024_20_4_9_597_611 (In Russ.).
Klupt, M. A. (2008). Demography of the regions of the Earth: Events of recent demographic history. Saint Petersburg: Piter. (In Russ.).
Klupt, M. A. (2012). Regional alternatives to global demographic development. Social Sciences and Modernity, (2), 66–77. (In Russ.).
Klupt, M. A. (2005). Theory of demographic development: An institutional perspective. Social Sciences and Modernity, (2), 139–149. (In Russ.).
Omran, A. R. (2019). The epidemiologic transition theory revisited thirty years later. Demographic Review, 6(1), 177–216. https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v6i1.9117 (In Russ.).
Rybakovskiy, O. L. (2023). Demographic potential: Essence, structure and main factors. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia, 19(3), 319–326. https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2023_19_3_1_319_326 (In Russ.).
Starodubtseva, E. B., Avdeeva, A. I., & Mamedov, T. N. (2025). Financial and economic cooperation between Russia and North African countries: Barriers and strategies of overcoming. Regional Economic Issues, 3(64), 259–277. (In Russ.).
Bhattarai, K., & Yousef, M. (2025). Colonial past and current ruling systems. In The Middle East (World Regional Geography book series, pp. 83–103). Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-83967-2_4
Goldstone, J. (2010). The new population bomb: The four megatrends that will change the world. Foreign Affairs, 89(1), 31–43.
Lutz, W., Goujon, A., KC, S., Stonawski, M., & Stilianakis, N. (2018). Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century: 2018 assessment for 201 countries. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. https://doi.org/10.2760/835878
Notestein, F. W. (1945). Population: The long view. In T. W. Schultz (Ed.), Food for the world (pp. 36–57). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Puschmann, P., & Matthijs, K. (2015). The demographic transition in the Arab world: The dual role of marriage in family dynamics and population growth. In Population change in Europe, the Middle-East and North Africa: Beyond the demographic divide (pp. 119–171). https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315601496-12
Regmi, K. R. (2021). Classical demographic transition theory: Compare and contrast between classical European and contemporary Third World. Academia Letters. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL1967
Reher, D., & Requena, M. (2015). The mid-twentieth century fertility boom from a global perspective. The History of the Family, 20(3), 420–445. https://doi.org/10.1080/1081602X.2014.944553
Reid, A. (2021). Why a long-term perspective is beneficial for demographers. Population Studies, 75(Suppl. 1), 157–177. https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2021.2002393