Predicting the distribution of the caucasus endemic Carabus exaratus Quensel, 1806 in the Maxent environment


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Avtaeva, T. A., Kushalieva, S. A., & Matsyura, A. V. (2024). Predicting the distribution of the caucasus endemic Carabus exaratus Quensel, 1806 in the Maxent environment. Acta Biologica Sibirica, 10, 317–324.


To investigate how the Caucasian endemic Carabus exaratus is distributed in a changing climate, we conducted modeling of its current and predicted ranges using the Maxent environment. Data from literary sources and our own field collections were used for this study, totaling 99 identified habitats. We utilized 20 bioclimatic variables with a spatial resolution of 30 seconds for the modeling. The analysis revealed several significant factors affecting C. exaratus: average annual temperature (bio 1), precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio 18), precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio 19), seasonality of precipitation (bio 15), isothermal conditions (bio 3), and elevation above sea level (bio 20). By applying the RCP 8.5 climate scenario, we generated maps showing forecasted ranges under changing climate conditions and calculated the areas of both current and predicted ranges. Our findings indicate that global warming will cause a shift and significant reduction in the bioclimatic range of Carabus exaratus.


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