Supplementary Files
Keywords
Acrididae
Pamphagidae
rare species
Russia
modelling
forecast
How to Cite
Abstract
The distribution patterns of 3 rare acridid species, namely Asiotmethis jubatus (Uvarov, 1926) (Pamphagidae), Aeropedellus baliolus Mistshenko, 1951 and Mesasippus arenosus (Bey-Bienko, 1930), are described and compared. In the region, there are the type localities of these species. A. jubatus and M. arenosus are very rare and mainly associated with the dry steppes and the semi-deserts of the region, while A. baliolus are more or less common and distributed over the steppes from their northern boundary up to the southern one. The ecologo-geographic modelling based on the Maxent approach allows to reveal the potential distribution patterns of habitats applicable for each species to forecast possible shifts of species distributions relative to feasible climatic changes according the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0 and the global climate model CNRM-ESM2-1. The comparative analysis of the species distributions, the predicted distributions of suitable conditions and the forecasts of their possible shifts showed that predictions for the endemic steppe species can be quite different. The fore-casts for A. jubatus and M. arenosus based on the species distribution models and the predictions of high greenhouse gas emissions show that they may become relatively prosperous in the middle of the 21st century and the northern boundaries of the optimal parts of their ranges may shift northward. The predictions for A. baliolus show that the species optimal territories may catastrophically reduce in the future (from 265,000 km2 now up to about 18,000 km2 in the middle of the 21st century). As a result, the conservation status of A. baliolus may significantly change, because it will explicitly meet the IUCN criteria of the Vulnerable species.
References
Berezhkov RP (1956) The grasshoppers of West Siberia. Tomsk University Publ., Tomsk, 175 pp. [In Russian]
Bey-Bienko GYa (1930a) Materials concerning the Orthoptera of the District of Semipalatinsk. News of West-Siberian Branch of the Russian Geographic Society 7: 189–214. [In Russian]
Bey-Bienko GYa (1930b) The zonal and ecological distribution of Acrididae in West Siberian and Zaisan Plains. Bulletin of Plant Protection. Entomology 1(1): 51–90. [In Russian]
Bey-Bienko GYa, Mistshenko LL (1951) Locusts and grasshoppers of the USSR and adjacent countries. Vol.1–2. USSR Academy of Science Publ., Moscow-Leningrad, 667 pp. [In Russian]
Çıplak B, Uluar O (2024) Anatolian short-horned grasshoppers unveiled: integrating biogeography and pest potential. Insects 15(1): 55. https://doi.org/10.3390/insects15010055
Chobanov DP, Aneva IY, Iorgu IS, Ivković S, Borissov SB (2021) Distribution and habitat of Onconotus servillei (Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae) within its westernmost range (Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia): models and perspectives. Macedonian Journal of Ecology and Environment 23(1): 37–49.
Chogsomzhav L (1972) Acridoidea and Tettigonioidea of the Mongolian People’s Republic. Nasekomje Mongolii 1: 151–198. [In Russian]
Dey LS, Simões MVP, Hawlitschek O, Sergeev MG, Xu S, Lkhagvasuren D, Husemann M (2021) Analysis of geographic centrality and genetic diversity in the declining grasshopper species Bryodemella tuberculata (Orthoptera: Oedipodinae). Biodiversity and Conservation 30: 2773–2796. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-021-02221-8
Elith J, Phillips SJ, Hastie T, Dudík M, Chee YE, Yates CJ (2011) A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists. Diversity and Distributions 17: 43–57. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00725.x
Fick SE, Hijmans RJ (2017) WorldClim 2: New 1 km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology 37: 4302–4315. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5086
Gause GF (1930) Studies on the ecology of the Orthoptera. Ecology 11: 307–325. https://doi.org/10.2307/1930266
Hengl T, MacMillan RA (2019) Predictive soil mapping with R. OpenGeoHub foundation, Wageningen, 370 pp. https://soilmapper.org/
International Union for Conservation of Nature (2001) IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria: Version 3.1. IUCN Species Survival Commission, Gland–Cambridge, 30 pp.
International Union for Conservation of Nature (2024) The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Version 2023-1. https://www.iucnredlist.org/
Kadyrbekov RH, Childebaev MK, Zhdanko AB, Tleppaeva AM, Kolov SV (2017) Impact of anthropogenic and abiotic factors on the structure of the insect fauna of the steppe life zone of Kazakhstan in contemporary environments. Almaty, 460 pp. [In Russian]
Kleukers R, Felix R (Eds) (2020) Grasshopper conservation in Europe. EIS Kenniscentrum Insecten & Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Leiden, 85 pp.
Lockwood JA, Sergeev MG (2000) Comparative biogeography of grasshoppers (Orthoptera: Acrididae) in North America and Siberia: Application to the conservation of biodiversity. Journal of Insect Conservation 4(3): 161–172. https://doi.org/0.1023/A:1009618425473
Meinshausen M, Nicholls ZRJ, Lewis J, Gidden MJ, Vogel E, Freund M, Beyerle U, Gessner C, Nauels A, Bauer N, Canadell JG, Daniel JS, John A, Krummel PB, Luderer G, Meinshausen N, Montzka SA, Rayner PJ, Reimann S, Smith SJ, van den Berg M, Velders GJM., Vollmer MK, Wang RHJ (2020) The shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) green-house gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500. Geoscientific Model Development 13: 3571–3605. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020
Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Schapire RE (2006) Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling 190: 231–259. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026
Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Dudík M, Schapire RE, Blair B (2017) Opening the black box: An open-source release of Maxent. Ecography 40: 887–893. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.03049
Popova KV, Molodtsov VV, Sergeev MG (2020) Rare grasshoppers (Orthoptera, Acridoidea) of the Baraba and Kulunda steppes (South Siberia). Acta Biologica Sibirica 6: 595–609. https://doi.org/10.3897/abs.6.e59519
Popova KV, Molodtsov VV, Efremova OV, Sergeev MG (2021) Grasshoppers in steppe areas of the south-eastern West Siberian Plain: Centennial transformations of biodiversity. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 817: 012088. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/817/1/012088
Popova KV, Baturina NS, Molodtsov VV, Yefremova OV, Zharkov VD, Sergeev MG (2022) The handsome cross grasshopper Oedaleus decorus (Germar, 1825) (Orthoptera: Acrididae) as a neglected pest in the south-eastern part of West Siberian Plain. Insects 13: 49. https://doi.org/10.3390/insects13010049
QGIS (2024) QGIS. A free and open source geographic information system. https://www.qgis.org
Samways MJ, Lockwood JA (1998) Orthoptera conservation: pests and paradoxes. Journal of Insect Conservation 2: 143–149. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009652016332
Séférian R (2018) CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-ESM2-1 Model Output Prepared for CMIP6 CMIP Amip. Version 20211010. Earth System Grid Federation. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.3924
Sergeev MG (1986) Distribution patterns of Orthoptera in North Asia. Nauka Publ., Novosibirsk, 237 pp. [In Russian]
Sergeev MG (1992) Distribution patterns of Orthoptera in North and Central Asia. Journal of Orthoptera Research 1: 14–24. https://doi.org/10.2307/3503557
Sergeev MG (1996) La sécheresse et les schémas de distribution des criquets en Asie centrale et septentrionale. Sécheresse 7(2): 129–132.
Sergeev MG (1998) Conservation of orthopteran biological diversity relative to landscape change in temperate Eurasia. Journal of Insect Conservation 2: 247–252. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009620519058
Sergeev MG (2019) The assemblages of Orthoptera in the south-eastern part of West Siberian Plain (the Karasuk River Basin), Russia. Euroasian Entomological Journal 18(4): 255–264. https://doi.org/10.15298/euroasentj.18.4.04 [In Russian]
Sergeev MG (2021a) Distribution patterns of grasshoppers and their kin over the Eurasian steppes. Insects 12: 77. https://doi.org/10.3390/insects12010077
Sergeev MG (2021b) Ups and downs of the Italian locust (Calliptamus italicus L.) populations in the Siberian steppes: On the horns of dilemmas. Agronomy 11: 746. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy11040746
Sergeev MG, Molodtsov VV (2022) New data on distribution of Montana striata (Kittary, 1849) (Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae: Platycleidini) in the eastern part of the range. Far Eastern Entomologist 465: 6–11. https://doi.org/10.25221/fee.465.2
Sergeev MG, Molodtsov VV (2024) New data on distribution of Miramiola pusilla (Miram, 1927) (Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae). Far Eastern Entomologist 496: 16–24. https://doi.org/10.25221/fee.496.4
Sergeev MG, Kim-Kashmenskaya MN, Molodtsov VV, Yefremova OV, Popova KV, Sokolova (Baturina) NS (2023a) Mapping and ecomodeling of the distribution of rare insect species in the south of Siberia and in neighboring regions (a case study of the superfamily Acridoidea). Geography and Natural Resources 5: 129–135. https://doi.org/10.15372/GIPR20230516 [In Russian]
Sergeev MG, Molodtsov VV, Storozhenko SYu (2023b) New data on distribution of Decticus nigrescens Tarbinsky, 1930 (Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae) in Russia. Far Eastern Entomologist 487: 21–28. https://doi.org/10.25221/fee.487.2
Steck CE, Bürgi M, Bolliger J, Kienast F, Lehmann A, Gonseth Y (2007) Conservation of grasshopper diversity in a changing environment. Biological Conservation 138: 360– 370. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2007.05.001
Steinmann H (1971) Tetricidae und Acrididae. Ergebnisse der zoologischen Forschungen von Dr. Z. Kaszab in der Mongolei (Orthoptera). 209. Faunistische Abhandlungen – Staatliches Museum für Tierkunde Dresden 3(14): 145–157.
Storozhenko SYu (2004) Long-horned orthopterans (Orthoptera: Ensifera) of the Asiatic part of Russia. Dalnauka, Vladivostok, 280 pp. [In Russian]
Storozhenko SYu, Molodtsov VV, Sergeev MG (2023) The mysterious Amurian grig Paracyphoderris erebeus Storozhenko, 1980 (Orthoptera: Prophalangopsidae): new data on its distribution, ecology and biology. Insects 14: 789. https://doi.org/10.3390/insects14100789
Tarbinskij SP (1925) Materials concerning the Orthopterous fauna of the Province of Altai. Revue Russe d'Entomologie 19: 176–195. [In Russian]
Uvarov BP (1926) A preliminary key to the Central-Asiatic species of the genus Tmethis Fieb. (Orth. Acrid.). Konowia 5(3): 179–186.
Uvarov BP (1928) Orthoptera of the mountains of Palaearctic region. Mémoires de la Société de Biogéographie 2: 135–141.
WorldClim (2022) WorldClim https://worldclim.org/data/index.html
Acta Biologica Sibirica is a golden publisher, as we allow self-archiving, but most importantly we are fully transparent about your rights.
Authors may present and discuss their findings ahead of publication: at biological or scientific conferences, on preprint servers, in public databases, and in blogs, wikis, tweets, and other informal communication channels.
ABS allows authors to deposit manuscripts (currently under review or those for intended submission to ABS) in non-commercial, pre-print servers such as ArXiv.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0) that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).