Folk methods of weather forecasting in Kyrgyzstan and their analysis based on modern data

Abstract

Based on field materials collected by the authors during ethnographic expeditions in Kyrgyzstan in 2023-2024, the article analyzes traditional methods of weather forecasting among Kyrgyz people. Special attention is paid to astronomical signs. The analysis shows that some of the observations related to optical atmospheric phenomena have a scientific basis and can be used for forecasting, although with limited accuracy. The other group of signs reflects centuries-old astronomical observations, but has no direct cause-and-effect relationship with the weather, being rather a reflection of the practices of observing celestial bodies. The third group of assumptions, based on observations of the Moon's connections with planets and some stars (togooles), has no predictive power and presumably goes back to Tengrian ideas about the influence of celestial deities on the earthly world. In addition, the article discusses folk rituals associated with the attempt to influence the weather. It also describes the activities of modern national meteorologists (tabyrkachi) using an integrated approach, which consists in combining traditional signs of weather prediction and modern approaches to the assessment and hierarchy of these signs.